TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN GULF; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE… Heavy rain and flash flooding will become possible later this week and into the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure develops in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 20% chance of this area of low pressure becoming a named tropical storm. There is a growing chance, regardless of if this system becomes a named storm, of local impacts happening in south Alabama and northwest Florida later this week and into the weekend. Heavy rain and flash flooding seem likely. A tornado risk may also develop, depending on the exact setup of the system. Coastal hazards, including dangerous and widespread rip currents, will be possible. While we still have many question marks concerning specifics, below is the information we do know as of Sunday evening.
20% CHANCE OF A NAMED TROPICAL STORM FORMING… The National Hurricane Center is indicating there is a low-end (20%) chance of a named tropical storm forming in the northern Gulf of Mexico, potentially near our local area, later this week and into the upcoming weekend. Their text discussion explains the setup: “A surface trough of low pressure is expected to form in the northern Gulf of Mexico, partially related to a decaying frontal boundary currently located over the southeastern United States. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts just offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the middle to later part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coastline from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days.”
MAIN CONCERN: HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND… While it is impossible to know for sure if a named tropical storm will develop later this week, it certainly seems like heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding will be the main hazard that sets up. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is calling for 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in total across our area over the next 5-6 days. Greater rain amounts are likely closer to the immediate coast. Flash flooding will also become a concern later this week into the weekend.
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK… While it remains too early for hazard specifics, it is possible that a tornado risk may develop across parts of the Deep South next week IF this tropical system develops into a named tropical storm. No way to know exactly where this risk will maximize or setup just yet. Stay tuned for more details in the days ahead.
STORMS DEVELOP OCCASIONALLY FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES… Most of us think of tropical storms and hurricanes as storms that develop directly over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean. Usually, storms develop from tropical waves or areas of low pressure that develop exclusively over water. It is not unprecedented, and frankly, not all that uncommon, to have a situation like this where a frontal boundary slides southeast and then ultimately spins up a tropical system. Two examples come to mind of this happening: 1) Tropical Storm Colin had a similar setup just a few weeks ago. The storm formed along the Carolina coast and actually remained centered inland for the duration of the storm before dissipating. 2) Hurricane Barry in 2019 had a similar setup to what we are seeing here. Barry became a tropical storm in the northern Gulf before looping west and making landfall in Louisiana. The origins of Barry were a MCS or cluster of thunderstorms that moved off the continent and into the northern Gulf. While it may not be exactly the first thing that pops in our mind when we think of developing tropical storms, this situation is not that unusual or spectacular just because a storm has origins from a system over land. It should be noted and emphasized that hurricanes and tropical storms do not strengthen over land. Tropical systems are warm core systems that must strengthen over water.
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM. Be sure to check in tomorrow morning and in the mornings ahead for the very latest information on this developing tropical system. Have a nice Sunday evening!