P.M. STORMS TODAY; WATCHING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS IN THE TROPICS… Thunderstorms will pop up this afternoon, but we probably won’t have AS many storms around as previous days. Storms will be more widely spaced this afternoon compared to the last few days AND compared to later this week. There is about a 1 in 3 chance that your community gets wet before the end of the day. Severe storms are not expected today but some of the storms will be rowdy at times. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be a concern in the stronger storms today. More P.M. storms are expected Tuesday before higher rain chances happen later this week across our local area. The tropics have become quite a bit more active. We are now tracking 4 separate tropical disturbances that all have at least some chance of becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. I’ve got a full rundown of what you can expect locally and a in-depth dive into the tropical details, below.
MORE P.M. STORMS TUESDAY; HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK… Tomorrow will be quite similar to today with pop-up thunderstorms being possible primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances are set to increase later this week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front may dive far enough south to bring some slightly drier air to the northern part of our local area later in the week, although details about are a bit murky at this time. Even with that scenario happening, the Labor Day Weekend will likely be wet at times in many spots across the local area.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST… Rain chances look fairly elevated as we go into the upcoming weekend, extending to Labor Day one week from today on Monday. High (70-80%) rain chances seem likely as atmospheric moisture yet again builds into our region from the southwest. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s with morning lows in the low- to mid-70s. No signs of any tropical or hurricane trouble locally on Labor Day Weekend.
TROPICS: NO IMMINENT LOCAL THREATS… Before we dive deeply into the details concerning the 4 (yes, 4!) tropical disturbances happening across the Atlantic Basin, you should know that none of these 4 systems pose any immediate threat to south Alabama or northwest Florida. You may be wondering if any of these systems COULD pose a threat to our area? The answer is probably not, but it is obviously too early to rule out local impacts for two of the systems in the Atlantic Ocean that are simply more than a week out from any potential USA impacts. Let’s talk about what we know this morning.
TROPICS: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN… There is a low-end (20-30%) chance that a tropical storm develops in the northwestern Caribbean Sea over the next few days. Longer range weather models show a general continued northwesterly movement toward mainland Mexico or South Texas in about a week. From NHC: “A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.”
TROPICS: TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR OR NORTH OF ANTILLES… The tropical disturbance currently situated several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean has become better organized over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center indicates this system has a 70-80% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days as a general northwesterly movement continues. This tropical system will likely pass near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles later this week. The longer range weather models show a continued movement toward the Turks & Caicos Islands and The Bahamas into the upcoming weekend. Beyond that, wild speculation begins with model solutions diverging significantly. I’ll have more information about this developing system in the RedZone Weather app over the next few days.
TROPICS: NEW TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING FROM AFRICA… In addition to the previous two systems, a new tropical wave is forecast to emerge from the western coast of Africa later today or tonight. The National Hurricane Center indicates gradual development of this tropical wave to tropical storm status may be possible as the system moves westward across the Atlantic Ocean. For now, NHC has put development probabilities at a 20% chance.
TROPICS: LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL EAST OF BERMUDA… This system will never directly affect the continental United States and there is a real chance this system dissipates completely before ever having a real chance of becoming a tropical storm. From NHC: “A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda is producing limited shower activity. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system while it drifts southward over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and the low is likely to dissipate by midweek.”
17TH ANNIVERSARY OF HURRICANE KATRINA LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA… Seventeen years ago today, America woke up to scenes of devastation impacting New Orleans, much of eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and even parts of southwest Alabama. Hurricane Katrina was roaring ashore as a category 3 hurricane (at landfall). The storm is tied with Hurricane Harvey (2017) as the costliest hurricane to ever affect America. Katrina remains the deadliest hurricane to strike America in the modern era, killing 1,836 souls across 7 states. Vast majority of those who perished lost their lives in Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Today we remember all those lost in Hurricane Katrina, seventeen years ago today.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!