FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TODAY; HEAVY RAIN & STORMS LATER THIS WEEK… Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and in the days ahead. No formal risk of severe storms today, but some of the storms will be loud and proud at times. Gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, loud thunder, and heavy rain will be possible in the strongest of the storms. 3PM to 7PM looks to be the four hour window when storms will be most numerous today. Higher rain chances are expected later this week locally. The tropics remain active as we continue to track Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl, both systems being in the Atlantic Ocean. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain quiet and the longer range models generally show quiet conditions lasting for at least the next 5 days. A few more Tuesday morning forecast notes are below.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK… An upper-level low pressure area will be nearby our region later this week, enhancing the overall chance of showers and thunderstorms from around Thursday to Sunday. Friday looks particularly wet with high rain chances throughout the day. While organized severe weather seems rather unlikely, a flash flooding scenario may be possible. The greatest chance of flash flooding issues later this week will likely set up in areas along and south of Interstate 65 in south Alabama and northwest Florida.
TROPICS: GULF OF MEXICO & CARIBBEAN SEA QUIET… While the Atlantic Basin (which includes the Gulf and the Caribbean) is active overall, the good news is the Gulf of Mexico AND the Caribbean Sea are quiet with no new tropical storms expected to form in either body of water over the next 5 days. This means the local area will almost certainly not have any tropical/hurricane impacts over the next 5-7 days.
TROPICS: HURRICANE DANIELLE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC… Danielle developed as a tropical storm late last week before becoming this season’s first hurricane over the weekend. Hurricane Danielle is packing approximately 80 mph winds on this Tuesday. The storm is located well away from any land areas in the northern Atlantic Ocean. Danielle is forecast to continue to move northeast and out to sea. The hurricane will transition into an extratropical storm later this week.
TROPICS: TROPICAL STORM EARL IN THE ATLANTIC… Tropical Storm Earl is located about 350 miles north of St. Thomas in the Atlantic Ocean. That is about 600 miles south of Bermuda. Earl is expected to become a hurricane today and will probably become a category 3, major hurricane later this week. The good news is Earl will likely remain well away from the continental United States. Interests in Bermuda, however, should closely monitor the progress of Earl as the system may bring impacts to the island commonwealth later this week. Right now, the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the center of Earl passing a bit to the east of Bermuda on Thursday into Friday, probably as a major hurricane.
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… Another tropical wave has emerged from the African continent into the far eastern Atlantic Ocean that has a 60-70% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next several days as a general westward or northwestward movement happens. Far too early to know where this potential storm ends up (or if it will, in fact, develop into a named tropical storm). Something to watch over the next few days.
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See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!