SCATTERED P.M. STORMS; SLIGHT COOL DOWN COMING NEXT WEEK… Thunderstorms are expected to pop up this afternoon into this evening ahead of higher rain chances on Friday into Saturday. Widespread severe weather is not expected today, but some of the thunderstorms across the region may be loud and rowdy at times. Total rain amounts over the next several days will vary quite a bit, but most spots will generally pick up between 1 and 3 inches of rain through Sunday. Greater rain amounts are expected in areas just to our east in the Florida Panhandle. There are signs we may see a brief cooldown next week with temperatures likely to be in the low- to mid-60s by Wednesday morning. We’re also continuing to track 4 separate systems in the tropics, including Hurricane Earl. All of your Thursday morning weather details are below.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY… An area of low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Mexico before moving northeast today into tomorrow. This feature will cause increased rain chances in our area and in places just to our east in the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday and into Saturday. Rain amounts in northwest Florida and the Florida Panhandle will range from 2-3″ in parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties to greater than 5″ closer to Tallahassee, Apalachicola, and Port St. Joe. Some of the thunderstorms may be loud at times, but widespread severe weather is not expected.
DRIER, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK… The first cold front of the season is slated to arrive on Monday into Tuesday. While a significant cool down is NOT expected, temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than temperatures this weekend. Overnight lows by Wednesday morning of the upcoming week will be in the low- to mid-60s! High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid-80s
TROPICS: HURRICANE EARL TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TODAY… A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda as the core of Hurricane Earl is expected to pass near or just southeast of the island commonwealth. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for Bermuda. This means that tropical storm force (39+ mph) winds are expected and hurricane force (74+ mph) winds will be possible. Earl is explicitly forecast to reach category 4 intensity northeast of Bermuda over the open waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean this weekend. The good news is after Bermuda, Earl will likely not directly impact any more land areas before transitioning to a strong extratropical storm early next week. No impacts from Earl will happen in south Alabama or northwest Florida.
TROPICS: FINAL ADVISORY ON DANIELLE EXPECTED TODAY… Hurricane Danielle is located in the far northern Atlantic Ocean, centered about 625 miles northwest of The Azores. Danielle is losing tropical characteristics and will become an extratropical storm later today or tonight. The remnants of Danielle are forecast to bring rain and thunderstorms to the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) early next week. No direct issues for the USA from Danielle.
TROPICS: 70-80% CHANCE OF NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN ATLANTIC… There is now a high chance of a new tropical storm forming in the eastern Atlantic Ocean over the next several days as a tropical wave continues moving west or northwest. From NHC: “Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity still remains disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely form by Friday while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development.”
TROPICS: 30% CHANCE OF SEPARATE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMING… Just east of the aforementioned tropical wave that has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm, there is another tropical wave situated very near the African coast, moving westward into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is a low to medium chance this tropical wave ultimately becomes a tropical storm as it continues moving west in the days ahead. No threat to the USA anytime soon, if ever. Something to watch over the next few days.
TROPICS: GULF REMAINS QUIET… No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea over the next 5-7 days. The climatological peak of hurricane season happens this weekend on Sunday, September 11. Fortunately, no local issues in sight!
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See all the details in your Thursday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!