HIGH CHANCE OF BRIEF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN GULF… The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical disturbance (branded as INVEST 91L) in the northeast Gulf of Mexico now has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm as the system gradually moves southward over the next day or so. The disturbance has developed a well-defined, broad circulation centered about 120 miles southwest of Port St. Joe, FL or about 150 miles south-southeast of Destin, FL. This tropical disturbance is expected to meander across the northeastern Gulf today into tonight before slowly moving southward tomorrow into Saturday. It should be vehemently emphasized that significant local impacts are NOT expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida from this developing system. There is an increased rip current risk at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. High wind, heavy rain/flooding, and tornado issues are NOT expected across the local area due to this system.
USAF HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE 91L THIS EVENING… The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter team, based out of Kessler Air Force Base in Mississippi, will investigate INVEST 91L later this afternoon into this evening to determine whether a named tropical storm has formed. If that is the case, the system will take the name “Arlene,” the first name on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane naming list.
LOCALLY, POP-UP STORMS… Scattered cumulus clouds are noted across south Alabama and northwest Florida at the time I am producing this update at 1:14PM. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across parts of Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa counties this afternoon. I expect more storms to bubble up across the region over the next several hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected but some of the storms may produce localized downpours of heavy rain, gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lighting, and loud thunder. Storms are moving southwest today.
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I will have more updates posted throughout the evening in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Thursday evening!