FIRST DAY OF 2023 HURRICANE SEASON; CLOUDS & POP-UP STORMS LOCALLY… Today (June 1) marks the first day of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf of Mexico that has a low-end chance of briefly becoming a tropical storm before moving east into the Florida Peninsula later this week. Locally, pop-up thunderstorms are expected across the region at times today. Not every community will have rain before the end of the day but some inevitably will. The greater chance of of storms happening today will occur closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. High temperatures will be in the low-80s today. Mostly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day.
20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest there is a low-end (20%) chance of a tropical storm forming in the east-central Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula over the next few days. No significant impacts are expected due to this system in south Alabama or northwest Florida. The rip current risk at local beaches may be elevated, however. From NHC: “An area of low pressure has formed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with disorganized showers and thunderstorms displaced to its northeast. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend.”
CARIBBEAN SEA & ATLANTIC ARE QUIET, FOR NOW… The Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet with no new tropical storms expected to develop over the next 5-7 days. A few tropical waves are noted in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean between the Leeward Islands and the western coast of Africa. At this point, however, environmental conditions are not conducive for tropical storm formation.
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See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!