HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS AND SO DO THE WILD, CRAZY MISINFORMATION PAGES… Every year in early June, it seems like clockwork that single images of singular model runs are posted everywhere on social media depicting a hurricane making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast. I have had two people message me in the last hour showing me single image model runs from viral Facebook pages. Here’s the truth: We are very, very likely to have an active or hyperactive hurricane season this year due to near record sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the beginnings of a La Niña pattern in the equatorial Pacific. There is NO ONE that can tell you what areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or Atlantic Ocean will have landfalls from tropical systems this year. A few key points are below.
1) Any “hurricane page” that is not a trained meteorologist or credible source should be discarded. Plain and simple. “Gulf Coast Weather Updates,” “Gulf Hurricane Updates,” “Tropical Weather Source” could be operated by the Russians themselves for all we know. The rule of thumb as to how to identify a reputable weather source: Look for someone putting their name on the line. Local meteorologists, the local National Weather Service offices, local EMA, etc. Let me emphasize that I don’t have to be your weather source. That’s not what I am saying here. What I am saying is *please use credible sources.* Local sources are generally better than the national sources that bask in the craziness of hype and hyperbole. In fact, I think it behooves everyone to have MULTIPLE ways to get good, reliable information. If you like our updates, great. Thank you for watching. If you don’t, that’s fine too. Just make sure you’re listening to a reputable source and not “Hurricane Central Updates” or some crazy, wild page on Facebook OR SOMEONE THAT TYPES IN CONSISTENT ALL CAPS LIKE THIS. IF SOMEONE TYPES THEIR ENTIRE POSTS IN ALL CAPS, IT GENERALLY IS DESIGNED TO SCARE YOU. Seriously.
2) Single model runs are not the same as a handcrafted forecast. Think of a forecast as a finalized recipe with models being the many different ingredients in that recipe. Any trained meteorologist you follow uses multiple, well-known weather models to put together a forecast each day. One model is simply “one ingredient.” The Global Forecast System (GFS) is an American-based model that is run by the U.S. government. The ECMWF model is based in Europe. These models are great, but looking at one model image and passing it off as a forecast is like taking a photo of a raw egg and calling it a birthday cake. An egg is merely one ingredient of a birthday cake.
3) ANY “forecast” beyond 7 days out should be treated with a proverbial grain of salt. The images circulating wildly on social media are 14+ days out. Read that again: Fourteen days out. No one, and I truly mean NO ONE, can tell you with accuracy or precision what a weather forecast for a given point will be in 14 days. Ideas based on climatology of an area provide some clues, but even then, wild changes are possible. If a social media page is posting supposed “forecasts” beyond 7 days out, discard it.
Long-time viewers and readers know that I do my best to “shoot it to you straight.” Hyperbole, hype, and fear mongering are totally unnecessary when communicating weather info. Moreover, posts that have NO context and post these wild, crazy model images are also pointless. Unfortunately, so many people these days love the “dopamine hit” that comes from getting numerous likes and shares on social media. The best thing to do when you come across a wildly inaccurate, hyped up weather post: Scroll on by and don’t interact with the post. Don’t feed the trolls, in other words.
It is unfortunate that we live in a world where the writers of these viral posts have no regard for people that have weather anxiety. We don’t post deranged info like that around here.
My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday morning. Have a great evening!