TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN EASTERN GULF; UNCERTAINTY INCREASES… Uncertainty, unfortunately, has increased surrounding the future path of the tropical wave currently located near the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Uncertainty has also increased as to exactly when this system may ultimately develop into a named tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate this evening there is a 60% chance of this system becoming a named tropical storm over the next 5-7 days. Some scenarios bring the system uncomfortably close to our region in about a week, but it remains too soon to say whether local impacts will be a real possibility.
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING… This Wednesday evening features a cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave axis moving through the northernmost Lesser Antilles near the U.S. Virgin Islands. This system will bring heavy rain to Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti over the next day or so. Rain is likely in Jamaica and across parts of Cuba, the Turks & Caicos islands, and The Bahamas on Friday into Saturday. The overall environment is not favorable for tropical storm development through Friday, but this weekend is a different story. The tropical disturbance will be moving into an environment that is more favorable for development when it is near the western Bahamas, southern Florida, and western Cuba.
BIGGEST QUESTION: WHEN & WHERE DOES A LOW-LEVEL CENTER FORM?… Today was, unfortunately, exactly what we did not want to see in that uncertainty surrounding the future of this system has increased instead of decreasing. This is because the major global weather models do not have the best grasp on the strength of the subtropical ridge of high pressure (centered near Bermuda in the Atlantic Ocean) that will be the ultimate “driver” of this developing tropical system. In addition, models generally struggle somewhat until a tropical system has a well-defined low-level center of circulation. We’re looking ahead to Saturday and Sunday when this tropical wave will “congeal” or consolidate into more of an organized system. That may happen when the system is near The Bahamas, the coast of Cuba, the Florida Keys, or even in the northern Caribbean Sea near Cuba. Where the system actually gets its act together will have huge implications on where the system ultimately ends up. If the northern end of the tropical wave organizes, it would likely be more of a threat for the East Coast of the U.S. whereas if a low-level center forms in the Florida Straits, the Panhandle or western part of the Florida Peninsula could be at a greater threat level. There is even an off chance that the low-level center forms in the Caribbean Sea.
LOCAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT – ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… It remains too early to know whether this system will impact Alabama or northwest Florida directly. Yesterday and early this morning, the trends were quite positive in suggesting the system may remain farther to the east. That trend, unfortunately, was reversed significantly today as much more uncertainty has been injected into the potential range of outcomes due to model guidance again being “all over the board.” The most concerning outcome I am seeing right now is a messy, extreme rain system that could bring excessive rain and flash flooding to parts of Florida, Georgia, or Alabama if that scenario materialized. This would be because of steering currents all but collapsing in 7-10 days, thus bringing a significant flood threat. Problem is – there is ZERO confidence in suggesting where that would happen. The best case scenario is the system develops earlier in this process, moves entirely east of Florida in the Atlantic Ocean and ultimately turns out to sea. That IS still a possibility. The truth of what happens probably is somewhere in the middle of those best and worst case scenarios. Big takeaway here for all folks in Alabama and northwest Florida – please check back for more updates in the days ahead.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have a full rundown on this system and what you can expect locally (more heat, humidity, and P.M. pop-up storms!) in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning.
Have a nice Wednesday evening!