NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THRU CARIBBEAN; DEBBY TO OUR EAST… Separate from Tropical Storm Debby that is on the cusp of becoming a hurricane in the eastern Gulf this evening, we are now tracking a new tropical disturbance near the Lesser Antilles that has a 30% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next few days. This tropical disturbance is currently in an environment that is not exactly supportive of immediate development. The environment ahead of the disturbance in the central and western Caribbean Sea, however, is more favorable for development. The odds of this system moving into the Gulf of Mexico are fairly high, but there is ZERO (and I truly mean zero) confidence at this phase of knowing which parts of the Gulf of Mexico region have a greater chance of direct impacts from this developing system.
The big headline here: It’s another system we will need to watch, but nothing to stress over at this point. It’s hurricane season and we will continue to see a ramp up in activity over the next several weeks.
DEBBY ABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE… Tropical Storm Debby is centered about 90 miles west-northwest of Tampa, Florida. That is about 95 miles south-southwest of Steinhatchee, Florida, which is in the direct path of the storm. Debby is forecast to strengthen overnight and the system will likely be a category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall tomorrow morning. A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a chunk of the Big Bend region in Florida westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cape San Blas, Port St. Joe, and Mexico Beach. Direct local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are NOT expected because of Debby.
ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY; QUITE HOT THIS WEEK… Rain chances will be rather low (20-30%) but not completely zero on Monday. Winds will be out of the north due to the large counterclockwise circulation of Debby to our east. High temperatures will be in the upper-90s across west Alabama on Monday with low-90s on the eastern side of our region, again due to Debby.
I will have a detailed analysis on what the future holds for Debby and a look at the new tropical disturbance in the next morning forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning.
Have a good Sunday night!