FRANCINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN GULF; ISOLATED TORNADOES LOCALLY WED. INTO THURSDAY… Tropical Storm Francine continues to become more organized on this Tuesday morning. The storm is forecast to make landfall as a hurricane along the central coast of Louisiana at some point on Wednesday. Impacts will be potentially significant in parts of Louisiana and perhaps parts of southwest Mississippi. See specific local impacts expectations for south Alabama and northwest Florida below.
FRANCINE LOCAL IMPACTS – SOUTH ALABAMA & NORTHWEST FLORIDA… Rain is likely at times on Wednesday, specifically in the P.M. hours. Pockets of heavy rain are expected on Thursday, particularly across west Alabama. There is a chance of a few tornadoes developing in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and perhaps northwest Florida on Wednesday into Thursday as the core of the system passes to our west and northwest. Rain amounts of 2-4″ will be widespread across the region. Flash flooding could become a concern if storms train over the same areas but I suspect this will simply be a good, beneficial rain event for most communities without a major flash flooding risk. No significant high wind impacts are expected locally, although 20-30 mph wind gusts may become possible near the beaches and bays. Rip currents and dangerous waves are expected at local beaches.
FRANCINE HAZARDS: TORNADOES… Isolated tornadoes will be possible Wednesday P.M. into Thursday A.M. (including the overnight hours of Wednesday night, unfortunately) as the core of what will likely be Hurricane Francine passes to our west. This means our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be on the “messy” eastern side of the storm where the flow is out of the south, thus ushering in copious amounts of Gulf moisture and instability. I expect tornadoes to be few and far between locally, but if one tornado affects people, it’s a big deal. Have a way to hear warnings Wednesday into Thursday! The Storm Prediction Center now includes much of south Alabama, northwest Florida, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi in their Levels 1 and 2 tornado risk zones.
FRANCINE HAZARDS: WIND… High wind impacts are not currently in the forecast for any part of southwest Alabama or northwest Florida. 20-30 mph wind gusts may become possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning across parts of west Alabama. Breezy conditions are expected region-wide, but widespread wind damage is highly unlikely locally. The highest wind impacts associated with Francine will likely happen in parts of central Louisiana.
FRANCINE HAZARDS: SURGE… Widespread storm surge is not currently anticipated in Alabama or northwest Florida. 1 to 2 feet of storm surge MAY be possible near parts of Mobile Bay, but even that is currently not indicated in the surge forecast by the National Hurricane Center.
FRANCINE HAZARDS: HEAVY RAIN… Most communities in south Alabama and northwest Florida are expected to pick up 2 to 4 inches of (largely beneficial!!) rainfall. This system should help to put a dent in ongoing drought conditions. River and creek water levels are low, thus widespread river and creek flooding is highly unlikely. River and creek flooding will be more of a concern in western Mississippi and Louisiana.
APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Friday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!