PTC9 ORGANIZING IN CARIBBEAN; NHC FORECASTING MAJOR HURRICANE IN EASTERN GULF… The forecast for the developing tropical system in the Caribbean Sea (currently branded as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 or PTC9) continues to become a bit more clear with each passing hour. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the system to become a tropical storm at some point tonight or tomorrow. The system will take the name “Helene” or “Isaac,” depending on if this system or another, separate system far out in the Atlantic Ocean develops first. PTC9 will probably be at or near hurricane strength when the system moves into the southern Gulf on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center is now explicitly forecasting the storm to be a category 3, major hurricane as it moves north or northeast through the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. Folks in and near the Florida Panhandle, Tallahassee, north Florida, the Big Bend region, far southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this system as potentially extreme impacts may become possible in these zones later this week.
ALABAMA & MUCH OF N.W. FLORIDA ON “BETTER,” WESTERN SIDE, FOR NOW… The forecast continues to become more consistent in suggesting that much of Alabama and northwest Florida will be on the “better” or western side of this developing tropical system. That is important, as even if the system ramps up to a powerful hurricane, our local area would likely not experience near the significant impacts that we would expect near the center of the storm and on the “messy,” volatile eastern side of the storm.
6PM MONDAY: LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – S.W. ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… Significant local impacts are not currently expected in southwest Alabama or northwest Florida due to this developing tropical system. Impacts such as heavy rain at times, gusty (20-30 mph gusts near the coast) wind, and a very high risk of rip currents at local beaches are expected, but under the current forecast guidance, there is simply no evidence of any significant impacts happening in southwest Alabama or northwest Florida in areas WEST of Opp, Crestview, and Destin. Further forecast changes will be possible, however, and I want to get another day of data in before we really start feeling better about our chances. Again, to be clear, the trends have been and are quite positive today in keeping the impacts to our east, but this is (by no means) an “all clear” just yet. I will have more updates posted later tonight and tomorrow in the RedZone Weather app.
DANGER ZONE: TALLAHASSEE & BIG BEND REGION… The landfall point of this developing tropical system is expected to happen between Destin and Tampa Bay along the Gulf Coast of Florida. More specifically, landfall is MOST likely to happen (again, under the CURRENT forecast guidance) from Port St. Joe to Cedar Key. This is a very storm surge prone part of the Florida coast, and a zone that has had far too many hurricanes over the last few years! Please heed any evacuation orders you get if you are in Port St. Joe, Indian Pass, Cape San Blas, Apalachicola, Carrabelle, Sopchoppy, St. Marks, Tallahassee, Perry, Cross City, Horseshoe Beach, Cedar Key, or surrounding locales in the Big Bend region of Florida. This could be an extremely dangerous situation setting up for that specific part of Florida!
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FL KEYS; HURRICANE WATCH FOR CUBA AND MEXICO… A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas and the Lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico and for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico and for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
HURRICANE WATCH LIKELY SOON FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA COAST… A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed tomorrow or Wednesday for parts of the Florida Big Bend region and perhaps parts of the Florida Panhandle region and the western coast of Florida near Tampa, potentially. In addition, don’t be surprised if we see a Tropical Storm Watch being issued for places potentially as far west as Pensacola. This will be a large storm with a large radius of tropical storm force winds extending well away from the center of the storm, even on the western side. While I doubt major issues will happen locally, I would not be surprised to see a Tropical Storm Watch issued as a precautionary measure to account for the off chance of tropical storm force wind gusts near the coast in our region.
STORM TIMING – PTC9… The U.S. landfall of this developing storm is currently forecast to happen on Thursday. Impacts from the storm will begin in parts of Florida as early as late Wednesday night, however. Folks in the Florida Panhandle from Panama City and Marianna eastward should really keep a close watch on this system. Further forecast changes will be possible in the days ahead.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LOCALLY… South Alabama and northwest Florida will have extremely beneficial rainfall off of this developing hurricane. Places like Opp, Florala, Crestview, Destin, Santa Rosa Beach, Fort Walton Beach, Navarre, DeFuniak Springs, and points east will pick up 2-4″ of total rainfall most likely. Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 1-3″ range for places like Mobile, Fairhope, Foley, Pensacola, Orange Beach, Jay, Atmore, Brewton, Thomasville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, and Andalusia. Much of this rainfall is expected Wednesday into Thursday across the local area. High temperatures on Thursday will only be in the upper-70s and near 80° due to all of the clouds and rain around.
FUJIWHARA EFFECT POSSIBLE… I have had a few questions about what is somewhat of an oddity in the forecast this weekend once the system comes onshore. An area of low pressure expected to develop near Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana will cause the remnants of this hurricane to move to the northwest on Friday or Saturday. This means the remnant low pressure area from this tropical system will be rotating around the larger area of low pressure off to the west. This is similar to what is known as a “Fujiwhara interaction.” It happens most often in the western Pacific during typhoon season. It has no real world implications other than being a bit uncommon for the southeastern U.S. More of a weird quirk/oddity than anything meaningful to most people. You may hear the term thrown around over the next few days. Not scary at all, just a curiosity!
APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have more updates posted throughout the evening in the RedZone Weather app. My next regularly scheduled forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning.
Have a good Monday evening!