INVEST 97L EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO GULF; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK… The probability of a tropical storm forming over the next few days in the western Caribbean Sea and/or the southern Gulf of Mexico is now quite high as we continue to track a tropical disturbance currently branded as Invest 97L. This system will likely become a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. The system is expected to intensify midweek and will probably reach hurricane status. Some scenarios have the system strengthening into a dangerous, major hurricane ahead of landfall later in the week. Right now, nobody (and I truly mean no one!) can tell you exactly where this storm will end up. Landfall may happen as far west as Pensacola or as far east as Tampa. The actual landfall point will very likely happen somewhere in between those two locales. Most of the model guidance over the last 18 hours has suggested a landfall between Destin and Apalachicola, but again, it is too early for specifics like that just yet. Direct local impacts will be possible in our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida.
MAINLY SUNNY TODAY; FEW HIGHLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE… Mostly sunny skies are expected across the local area today. A few highly isolated showers will be possible today, particularly this evening, across the region. MOST communities across the region will remain dry and hot. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s today.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – S.W. ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… No real changes to report just yet concerning projected local impacts across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. This discussion is largely similar to what I posted yesterday evening: Heavy rain will become likely at times across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida later this week as this system approaches from the south. Flash flooding may become a concern. The threat of high wind and tornadoes is less clear across our local area as we need to get a better handle of the future path of the system. While possible in some scenarios, there are many more scenarios that would keep the threat of high wind and tornadoes well to our east. In addition, hazards like high waves and rip currents are likely at our local beaches this week and into the weekend. Please check back in with me over the next few days for more updates.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – FLORIDA PANHANDLE, S.E. ALABAMA, S.W. GEORGIA… Similar to the previous paragraph, this discussion has not changed since the last detailed update last evening: Significant impacts would be likely in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia under the current forecast guidance. Again, this is highly subject to change depending on new data coming in over the next few days. The current forecast guidance suggests the potential exists for hurricane impacts in parts of these areas, specifically closer to the coast. Significant impacts would be possible further inland in parts of southeast Alabama and/or southwest Georgia IF the system ends up being a major hurricane at landfall.
STORM TIMING – INVEST 97L… Direct local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida would happen likely on Thursday into Friday, IF current forecast guidance continues to hold. No significant weather impacts are expected locally today or Tuesday. The rip current risk will increase at all local beaches early this week with waves ramping up ahead of the tropical system being in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
FORECAST TRACK & INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN… We will begin to get a much better grasp of the future path and intensity of this system once a low-level center of circulation forms. Right now, the system continues to be a group of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea located just northeast of the coast of Honduras. Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and perhaps the western part of Cuba today or tonight. The National Hurricane Center may begin issuing advisories on this system under the “Potential Tropical Cyclone” nomenclature as early as later today. I expect that model guidance will become more clear this evening into Tuesday.
TRACK SHIFTS WILL LEAD TO MAJORLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES… Please remember that small shifts in the projected path of this developing tropical system will cause potentially significant shifts in the outcomes of what happens at a specific location. This means that if the core of the system makes landfall in northwest Florida or the Florida Panhandle near Panama City, impacts in our local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida would be more pronounced. IF, however, the system makes landfall further to the east near Apalachicola or the Big Bend region, impacts locally would likely be far less significant (and more significant for areas to our east!). Clarity will come with time as we continue to receive more data into the models.
APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Monday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!