HELENE SET TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW; MAJOR IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN BIG BEND… PTC9 organized and is now Tropical Storm Helene, currently located in the western Caribbean Sea as of 4PM Tuesday. The storm continues to become stronger and now has maximum winds of 50 mph, per the 5PM EDT Tuesday advisory. Helene will likely become a hurricane overnight or on Wednesday. The storm will quickly move northeast across the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night into Thursday, likely making landfall in the Big Bend region between Port St. Joe and Cedar Key. This post extensively outlines exactly what specific areas should expect over the next 2-3 days in addition to the official products we have in effect by the National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather Service offices. Please scroll down and read what you can expect in your specific county.
HURRICANE WARNING POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA COAST; TROPICAL STORM WARNING CLOSER TO HOME… A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida. This includes Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Tallahassee, Apalachicola, and much of the Big Bend region. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.
The following paragraphs detail exactly what you can expect in your specific zone as Helene makes landfall on Thursday evening or early Friday morning. Helene is explicitly forecast to be a category 3, major hurricane at landfall with maximum winds near 115 mph near the center of the storm.
MOBILE & BALDWIN COUNTIES IN SW ALABAMA… Widespread, major impacts are not expected in this zone. This includes Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Creola, Satsuma, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Semmes, Wilmer, West Mobile, and surrounding areas. Breezy conditions (15-25 mph) are possible with wind gusts as high as 30 mph, particularly near Mobile Bay and the Alabama beaches. Widespread power outages are unlikely. Widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes are not expected in this zone. Significant storm surge is not expected in this zone.
COVINGTON, BUTLER, CRENSHAW COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA… This includes places like Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Forest Home, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Gantt, River Falls, Red Level, Loango, Rose Hill, Straughn, Luverne, and Brantley. Breezy conditions are expected (20-30 mph) with gusts as high as tropical storm force (40 mph) being possible. There is a chance some trees will fall, meaning scattered power outages may become a concern. Widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes are unlikely to happen in this zone.
CLARKE, WASHINGTON (AL), MONROE, CONECUH, ESCAMBIA (AL) COUNTIES IN SW ALABAMA… Widespread, major impacts are not expected in this zone. This includes Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, Tibbie, McIntosh, Leroy, Whatley, Coffeeville, Monroeville, Beatrice, Tunnel Springs, Uriah, Mexia, Perdue Hill, Excel, Frisco City, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Brewton, East Brewton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Owassa, Lyeffion, Range, Brooklyn, and surrounding areas. Breezy conditions (15-25 mph) are possible with wind gusts as high as 30 mph at times. Widespread power outages are unlikely. Widespread amounts of 1 to 3 inches of total rainfall are expected with the greater rainfall amounts happening farther to the east in this zone. Tornadoes are not expected in this zone.
ESCAMBIA (FL) & SANTA ROSA COUNTIES IN NW FLORIDA… Widespread, major impacts are unlikely, however there will be some impacts from the storm. Pensacola, Warrington, NAS Pensacola, Perdido Key, Beulah, Bellview, Walnut Hill, McDavid, Bratt, Century, Molino, Jay, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Milton, Pace, Pea Ridge, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Mulat, Bagdad, Chumuckla, and surrounding areas are involved in this zone. Breezy conditions are expected (20-30 mph) with gusts as high as tropical storm force (40 mph) near the beaches and bays. Widespread power outages are unlikely. Widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes are not expected in this zone. Significant storm surge is not expected in this zone.
OKALOOSA & WALTON COUNTIES IN NW FLORIDA… Widespread, major impacts are unlikely, however there will be some impacts from the storm. Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Eglin AFB, Niceville, Crestview, Laurel Hill, DeFuniak Springs, Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, Freeport are involved in this zone. Tropical storm force wind gusts (40-50 mph) may be possible in these communities, specifically in areas closer to the coast. There is a chance some trees will fall, meaning scattered power outages may become a concern. Widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes are unlikely to happen in this zone. Peak storm surge of 1-2 feet and some nuisance-type coastal flooding will be possible in and near Choctawhatchee Bay.
COFFEE, DALE, HENRY, HOUSTON, GENEVA, BARBOUR, PIKE COUNTIES IN SE ALABAMA… This includes Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Geneva, Samson, Ozark, Abbeville, Headland, Slocomb, and surrounding areas in southeast Alabama. Tropical storm force wind gusts (40-50 mph) may be possible, particularly in parts of Houston and Henry counties. There is a chance some trees will fall, meaning power outages may become a concern. Widespread amounts of 4 to 7 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes are much less likely in this zone compared to places farther to the east as this zone is expected to be on the western side of the large circulation center.
HOLMES, WASHINGTON (FL), BAY COUNTIES IN FL PANHANDLE… This includes places like Panama City, Lynn Haven, Mexico Beach, Tyndall AFB, Springfield, Parker, Panama City Beach, Bonifay, and Chipley. Tropical storm force winds (40-60 mph) may be possible in these communities, specifically in areas closer to the coast. There is a chance some trees will fall, meaning power outages may become a concern. Widespread amounts of 4 to 7 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes are much less likely in this zone compared to places farther to the east as this zone is expected to be on the western side of the large circulation center. Peak storm surge of 1-2 feet and some nuisance-type coastal flooding will be possible in and near the bays around Panama City and Tyndall AFB. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bay County.
GULF, CALHOUN, JACKSON COUNTIES IN FL PANHANDLE… This includes places like Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Wewahitchka, Blountstown, Altha, and Marianna. Tropical storm force winds are likely with hurricane force winds being possible. The highest chance of hurricane force winds in this zone will happen near Port St. Joe and Indian Pass. Numerous trees may fall. Mobile homes could be severely damaged or destroyed. Some roads will likely be impassable from large debris, and more within heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes will likely become impassable. Widespread power outages may be possible. Please heed any local evacuation orders you receive! Storm surge in Gulf County, specifically near Port St. Joe, may not be AS bad as the storm surge that happens farther east near Apalachicola. Currently, Port St. Joe is in the 1-4 ft. peak storm surge range. Areas near Indian Pass are in the 5-10 ft. peak surge zone as defined by the National Hurricane Center. Widespread amounts of 7 to 10 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes may be possible in this zone, depending on the exact future track of Helene. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Gulf County. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jackson and Calhoun counties.
FRANKLIN, LIBERTY, WAKULLA, LEON, GADSDEN COUNTIES IN FL PANHANDLE… This includes places like Apalachicola, Carrabelle, St. George Island, and Tallahassee. Major hurricane force (115+ mph) winds will be possible in these counties, specifically in areas that take a direct hit from the eyewall of Helene. Areas on the western side of the circulation may not sustain AS bad of the damage that will almost certainly happen on the eastern side of the storm and near the direct center of the storm. Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes will be possible. Damage will be greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. Widespread power outages are likely. A potentially extreme and dangerous peak storm surge of 12+ feet will be possible. Widespread amounts of 7 to 10 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes will be possible in this zone, depending on the exact future track of Helene. A Hurricane Warning and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for counties in this zone.
JEFFERSON (FL), TAYLOR, MADISON (FL), LAFAYETTE, DIXIE, LEVY COUNTIES IN BIG BEND… Major hurricane force (115+ mph) winds will be possible in these counties, specifically in areas that take a direct hit from the eyewall of Helene. Areas on the western side of the circulation may not sustain AS bad of the damage that will almost certainly happen on the eastern side of the storm and near the direct center of the storm. Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes will be possible. Damage will be greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. Widespread power outages are likely. A potentially extreme and dangerous peak storm surge of 12+ feet will be possible. Widespread amounts of 5 to 9 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes will be possible in this zone. A Hurricane Warning and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for counties in this zone.
PLEASE HEED LOCAL EVACUATION ORDERS… I strongly encourage folks in the Florida Panhandle region (east of Walton County) and in the Big Bend region to heed local evacuation orders, if issued, and please consult with the local National Weather Service offices in your specific area for the latest information. I regularly cover south Alabama and northwest Florida (areas west of Destin, Crestview, and Opp) so I will not have nonstop, live coverage in progress when the storm is making landfall later this week as our local area is not in the direct path of this storm.
I will have more updates posted over the next few hours in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Tuesday evening!
Here is the 5PM cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Helene from the National Hurricane Center.
