CORE OF LARGE HELENE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF S.W. AL & N.W. FL… Hurricane Helene continues to organize in the southern Gulf of Mexico on this Wednesday evening. The 4PM CDT advisory has maximum winds at 85 mph. While potentially significant impacts are expected in parts of the Big Bend region of Florida and in the Florida Panhandle near places like Tallahassee, forecast confidence is HIGH suggesting the core of Hurricane Helene will miss southwest Alabama and northwest Florida well to the east. This means that impacts will be possible on the western side of the storm in our region, but major impacts are not expected. Locally, the worst of the weather will happen on Thursday into Thursday evening near Destin, Niceville, Crestview, Florala, and Opp. These communities will have heavy rain at times along with breezy conditions. Tropical storm force wind gusts (not sustained, most likely) will be possible, particularly near Choctawhatchee Bay. Most other communities to the west will simply have rain and breezy conditions at times with no big impacts.
WHAT TO EXPECT ACROSS S.W. ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… Rain is expected at times on Thursday into Thursday evening. Breezy (15-25 mph) conditions are likely across the region, particularly if you’re further to the east. Tropical storm force wind gusts may be possible Thursday evening near Choctawhatchee Bay and in parts of Okaloosa and Covington counties. Higher wind gusts are possible just across the county line in parts of Walton, Geneva, and Coffee counties. Significant local impacts, however, continue to NOT be expected across southwest Alabama or northwest Florida due to Hurricane Helene. I realize hurricane anxiety is a real thing that many people seem to have. If you’re in my local area in southwest Alabama or northwest Florida (west of Destin), please breathe easier. Impacts possible, but NO major impacts locally.
THIS IS NOT A “HURRICANE SALLY 2.0″… I totally understand and very much empathize with folks who have a bit of “PTSD” after what happened with Hurricane Sally in September 2020. The storm was very slow-moving and basically sat on our doorstep for two days in the northern Gulf before plowing into Orange Beach and dropping 3 feet of total rainfall. Widespread, significant damage happened in parts of Baldwin and Escambia (FL) counties with damage also reported in several other counties across the region. Sally was a forecasting nightmare as the upper-level steering currents all but collapsed. Hurricane Helene, on the other hand, is a totally different beast. Forecast confidence is very high in suggesting a landfall point along the Florida Gulf Coast between Mexico Beach and Steinhatchee. Southwest Alabama and northwest Florida WILL be on the better/western side of this strengthening hurricane. While there will be SOME impacts (rain, breezy conditions, gusty winds near Choctawhatchee Bay), I am pleased to say that widespread, major impacts will not happen. An advancing frontal boundary (that sparked scattered storms across our region today) has protected us from Helene. This will be a very dangerous storm for places to our east in the Big Bend region of Florida and in parts of Georgia.
Major forecast changes are not expected. Hurricane Helene will make landfall tomorrow (Thursday) evening between Mexico Beach and Steinhatchee, FL.
FLORIDA WILL HAVE HELENE PROBLEMS; N.W. FLORIDA – NOT SO MUCH… 64 of the 67 counties in the state of Florida are under either a Tropical Storm Warning or a Hurricane Warning. The three counties that are NOT involved in a Tropical Storm Warning or Hurricane Warning are: Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING – WALTON CO., AND POINTS EAST… A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Walton, Holmes, Washington (FL), and Bay counties in the Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm force winds (40-60 mph) may be possible in these communities, specifically in areas closer to the coast. There is a chance some trees will fall, meaning power outages may become a concern. Widespread amounts of 4 to 7 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes are much less likely in this zone compared to places farther to the east as this zone is expected to be on the western side of the large circulation center. Peak storm surge of 1-2 feet and some nuisance-type coastal flooding will be possible in and near the bays around Panama City and Tyndall AFB.
COFFEE, DALE, HENRY, HOUSTON, GENEVA, BARBOUR, PIKE COUNTIES IN SE ALABAMA… This includes Dothan, Enterprise, Eufaula, Troy, Elba, Geneva, Samson, Ozark, Abbeville, Headland, Slocomb, and surrounding areas in southeast Alabama. Tropical storm force wind gusts (40-50 mph) may be possible, particularly in parts of Houston, Henry, and Barbour counties. There is a chance some trees will fall, meaning power outages may become a concern. Widespread amounts of 4 to 7 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes are much less likely in this zone compared to places farther to the east as this zone is expected to be on the western side of the large circulation center.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AUBURN, AL… In addition to the aforementioned southeast Alabama counties, a Tropical Storm Warning is now also in effect for inland counties in east Alabama. Bullock, Macon, Russell, Lee, and Chambers counties in east Alabama are involved in a Tropical Storm Warning. This includes places like Auburn, Opelika, Tuskegee, Union Springs, Valley, Lanett, and Phenix City. Tropical storm force wind gusts (40-50 mph) may be possible. There is a chance some trees will fall, meaning power outages may become a concern. Widespread amounts of 4 to 7 inches of total rainfall are expected. Tornadoes are much less likely in this zone compared to places farther to the east as this zone is expected to be on the western side of the large circulation center.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA… The entire northern half of the state of Georgia is now under a Tropical Storm Watch, including areas near Atlanta and Athens. Tropical storm force winds are expected to be widespread across the region. Air traffic in and out of the Atlanta Airport may be halted Thursday night into Friday as the core of Hurricane Helene approaches from the south. This could be a widespread, major damaging wind event for MUCH of the state of Georgia.
HURRICANE WARNING – BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA & S.W. GEORGIA… The core danger zone associated with Hurricane Helene will happen where a Hurricane Warning is in effect – the eastern fringe of the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend region of Florida, parts of north Florida, and southern Georgia. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Gulf, Calhoun, Jackson, Liberty, Franklin counties and points east in the Panhandle/Big Bend region of Florida. This includes (but is not limited to) Tallahassee, Apalachicola, Port St. Joe, Blountstown, Marianna, Perry, Cross City, Lake City, Cedar Key, Valdosta (GA), Bainbridge (GA), Thomasville (GA), Albany (GA), Tifton (GA), Moultrie (GA), and surrounding areas. Major impacts will be possible in these zones, including the potential for major hurricane force winds, particularly near areas like Tallahassee. Tornadoes will also be a concern, in addition to the extreme wind impacts in these areas.
MAJOR RAIN EVENT FOR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA; FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS… In addition to the wind and tornado impacts, I am also concerned about the growing potential for flash flooding across parts of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas in the days ahead. Upwards of 10 inches of total rainfall will be possible in isolated areas with a massive swath of the Deep South picking up 5-7 inches of rainfall in total due to Hurricane Helene. This means that flash flooding will be a major concern, specifically in areas along and east of the center of circulation.
STORM SURGE WARNING – INDIAN PASS TO FLAMINGO, FL… As if the extreme wind, tornado, and flooding concerns weren’t enough, I am also concerned about a dangerous and extreme storm surge being possible in parts of the Big Bend region of Florida. 12-15 ft. of water inundation will be possible in zones near and southeast of St. Marks and Tallahassee. There are also storm surge concerns near Apalachicola and Indian Pass, but perhaps to a lesser degree compared to what will happen east of the center of circulation. If you know anyone in a storm surge prone area in this Storm Surge Warning zone, call them and encourage them vehemently to GET OUT.
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted throughout the evening in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Wednesday evening!