TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORM MIDWEEK… There are more questions than answers at this point surrounding the potential development of a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Will the system develop at all? If the system does develop, where will it end up? Will local impacts be possible? The forecasting skill in the 7-10 day range for tropical systems is quite hindered by the fact that model guidance is highly variable and unreliable in that range. Any goober can post the fickle and ever changing model runs and pass it off as a forecast, but NO ONE (and I truly mean no one!) can say for sure if this system will develop, where it will end up, or if local impacts will be possible in south Alabama and/or northwest Florida. What we do know, on this Saturday evening, is that conditions appear to be favorable for at least some development in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming week.
40-50% CHANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING… While more questions than answers exist at this point (Will the system develop at all? If the system does develop, where will it end up? Will local impacts be possible?), the wide range of outcomes does include the potential for local impacts. This is the latest discussion as of 2PM from the National Hurricane Center: “An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.”
RANGE OF OUTCOMES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO… The spread of model guidance on this system has been all over the board, which is very typical for the early stages of systems like this. Models simply will not have a good grip on the future track of this system for the next few days until the system actually becomes a disturbance. If you look at the current visible satellite loop, there is currently nothing going on in the part of the Caribbean Sea where the system is expected to initiate. That will change midweek as convection starts organizing. Model guidance has been intermittent in suggesting outcomes from Mexico to Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama/Florida. Bottom line: Don’t believe anyone that tells you where this system is for sure going (based on “gut feelings,” in particular) as the data has been totally inconsistent so far. I will update you as we know more in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a nice Saturday evening!