SUNNY, NICE TUESDAY LOCALLY; DANGEROUS HURRICANE MILTON MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA PENINSULA… Ample sunshine is in the forecast today and over the next few days across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We continue to monitor a very dangerous Hurricane Milton in the southern Gulf that is moving toward the Florida Peninsula. Milton will be a significant risk to lives and property in parts of central Florida tomorrow (Wednesday, October 9 into Thursday, October 10) as the storm crosses the Florida Peninsula. The storm will cause major problems near the western coast of Florida near Tampa, farther inland potentially near places like Orlando, and potentially along the Atlantic coast of Florida as well.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOCALLY LATER THIS WEEK… Sunshine is expected each day over the next 7 days with no significant weather impacts across Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will be in the 80s with morning lows in the 50s later this week and into the weekend.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA… A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Tampa, Orlando, Lakeland, Clearwater, Ft. Myers, and for much of the Florida Peninsula today ahead of the arrival of dangerous Hurricane Milton tomorrow. Hurricane Milton is expected to be a major, category 3 or category 4 hurricane at landfall on Wednesday when the storm slams into the Florida Peninsula. Some of the higher-end intensity guidance is even higher, suggesting the possibility of Milton being a category 4 or 5 storm near landfall. The landfall point will very likely be along the west coast of Florida from Cedar Key to Ft. Myers, FL. This puts Tampa Bay in the core danger zone. Extreme storm surge will be a concern near Tampa Bay, Sarasota, Ft. Myers, and Naples, along with many other communities near the western Gulf Coast of Florida. High wind impacts will be a problem near the coast and farther inland in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Flooding and tornadoes are also possible Wednesday into Thursday. Hurricane Milton is NOT expected to cause major, direct issues in Alabama or northwest Florida.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… No significant, direct impacts are expected due to Hurricane Milton in Alabama or northwest Florida. Much of the week will be sunny and dry locally with cooler temperatures expected later this week. There will be a high risk of rip currents and high waves at the Alabama and Florida beaches through the end of the week and perhaps into the weekend as well.
HURRICANE MILTON: WORST CASE SCENARIO POSSIBLE FOR TAMPA BAY; EXTREME STORM SURGE LIKELY… One of the scenarios that would be, quite frankly, the worst case scenario for the Tampa Bay region is if the core/center of the hurricane makes landfall just north of Tampa Bay. That would mean the Tampa Bay area (along with St. Petersburg, Sarasota, Clearwater, Largo, Longboat Key, Bradenton, Ruskin, Siesta Key, and surrounding areas) would be on the southern side of the circulation where the extreme wind would be out of the west/Gulf. This would funnel a drastic, perhaps historic, amount of storm surge into the Tampa Bay area. Keep in mind, many of these communities just had some of their worst storm surge on record just a few weeks ago with Hurricane Helene, even though the core of Helene was offshore. That flow out of the west piled up a substantial amount of storm surge along the West Coast of Florida. This storm could be even worse, depending on exactly where the center of the storm moves onshore. If the center of Hurricane Milton moves on shore south of Tampa but north of Cape Coral/Ft. Myers, that would point to a potentially devastating storm surge for Ft. Myers, Cape Coral, and Naples. Those areas continue to recover from Hurricane Ian that was so horrible for those specific communities in 2022. Regardless of where the center of Hurricane Milton comes ashore, the storm surge is expected to be a major problem.
HURRICANE MILTON: HIGH WIND IMPACTS NEAR THE COAST AND INLAND AS WELL… Much will depend on exactly where the center of Hurricane Milton makes landfall. Widespread wind damage and power outages will be possible across parts of central and south Florida. This does not JUST apply to coastal areas. Inland places like Orlando, Lakeland, Winter Haven, Sebring, Apopka, Sanford, Clermont, and The Villages should be ready for the potential for widespread power outages and downed trees, again, depending on the exact future track of Hurricane Milton.
HURRICANE MILTON: FLOODING & TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE… In addition to a pronounced storm surge and high wind threat, I am also concerned about the potential for widespread flooding across the Florida Peninsula. 5 to 8 inches of total rainfall is expected over the next 5-7 days. This will lead to flash flooding being possible. Isolated tornadoes will also be a concern perhaps as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday as the core of Hurricane Milton approaches from the southwest
HURRICANE LESLIE IN THE ATLANTIC… Hurricane Leslie remains in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean well away from land areas. Leslie is expected to recurve to the northeast in about 5 days as the storm begins to weaken.
SEPARATE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BAHAMAS… There is a low-end chance that a tropical disturbance may develop into a named tropical storm between The Bahamas and Bermuda over the next few days. This system is moving away from Florida and toward the general vicinity of Bermuda in the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 20% chance of a named tropical storm forming over the next day or so.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Tuesday RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!