SYNOPSIS… There is an increasing chance that a tropical storm may form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 2-5 days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center now shows there is a 40% chance that the area of low pressure we’ve been monitoring in the western Caribbean Sea becomes a tropical storm this weekend. It is still too early to know for sure whether local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen. Some models do show the potential for local impacts at this early stage of this monitoring process, including the reliable ECMWF (Euro) model.
RELIABLE EURO SUGGESTS HURRICANE… Long-time RZW viewers/readers know that I strongly advise against getting caught up in “one model” solutions. Weather forecasts should be derived from a wide variety of models and data. I won’t post the below image publicly because of that. Below is one model idea from the ECMWF (European) model valid on Friday, October 12 at 7PM CDT. If this solution happens to be correct, it has a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane moving southwest to northeast just south of our area with a landfall near Fort Walton Beach being possible. Again, this is only one model idea!
OTHER MODEL IDEAS… The Euro/ECMWF model has consistently painted the idea of a tropical storm/hurricane moving north in the Gulf of Mexico in that timeframe. The American-based GFS completely discounts this idea with the area of low pressure remaining weak. Other U.S.- and Canadian-based models show the potential for a hurricane in the Gulf. Discrepancies like this should be expected, as we are still 2-5 days out from the development of this system. Models generally perform better once the system has actually formed.
LOCATIONS… Unfortunately, it is entirely too early to be specific about potential impacts for specific locations. Folks in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida should all closely monitor the progress of this system as it develops in the days ahead. That includes the entirety of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Details will become more clear as we continue to process more model data over the next few days.
TIMEFRAME… Local impacts will depend on IF the system develops into a tropical storm/hurricane AND if the track is geographically close to our local area. Thursday, October 11 through Sunday, October 14 is the best estimate for when local impacts are most likely in south Alabama and northwest Florida and that is IF (and that’s a big if, at this point) local impacts happen. That is a large timeframe that we will be able to get more specific with in the days ahead. Again, plenty of variables and uncertainties!
NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… Tomorrow (Friday, October 5) by 1:30PM CDT.
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good evening!