POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM IN GULF NEXT WEEK… There is an increasing chance that a tropical storm may form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 2-5 days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center now shows there is a 40% chance that the area of low pressure we’ve been monitoring in the western Caribbean Sea becomes a tropical storm this weekend. It is still too early to know for sure whether local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen. Some models do show the potential for local impacts at this early stage of this monitoring process, including the reliable ECMWF (Euro) model.
EARLY IN THE PROCESS… The Euro/ECMWF model has consistently painted the idea of a tropical storm/hurricane moving north in the Gulf of Mexico in the Monday through Wednesday timeframe of the upcoming week. The American-based GFS completely discounts this idea with the area of low pressure remaining weak. Other U.S.- and Canadian-based models show the potential for a hurricane in the Gulf. Discrepancies like this should be expected, as we are still 2-5 days out from the development of this system. Models generally perform better once the system has actually formed. We are very early in this process, and more data will paint a clearer picture in the days ahead for what (if anything) will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida.
TIMEFRAME… Local impacts will depend on IF the system develops into a tropical storm/hurricane AND if the track is geographically close to our local area. Thursday, October 11 through Sunday, October 14 is the best estimate for when local impacts are most likely in south Alabama and northwest Florida and that is IF (and that’s a big if, at this point) local impacts happen. That is a large timeframe that we will be able to get more specific with in the days ahead. Again, plenty of variables and uncertainties!
APP ALERTS… I’ll have plenty of updates in the days ahead here in the RedZone Weather app. If you haven’t already, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.