70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING… There is now a high (70%) chance that a tropical storm or hurricane may happen in the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days. While it is still too early to say with confidence that local impacts will happen in portions of south Alabama and northwest Florida, odds are increasing that this will be a storm that passes near or over our local area. We note that several models show the system moving directly over our primary coverage area from south to north, although I caution that it remains too early to say that will definitely happen. There still is a lot of uncertainty as to how weak or how strong this system will be. Let’s talk details…
CURRENT SITUATION… As of now, we have a developing area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea. Here is the latest synopsis from the National Hurricane Center: “Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua have become more concentrated during the past several hours. Although strong winds aloft are located just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive enough to allow slow development, and a tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves slowly northwestward.”
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT… I mentioned yesterday that there were a few model ideas that had a wide variety of potential impacts for the Gulf Coast. Today, there is better model agreement that a tropical storm or hurricane will develop in the Gulf and move northward. There is still notable model divergence as far as where the system ends up. Some models (like the Canadian) show a landfall farther west in Louisiana. Most models (like the ECMWF/Euro) show a northwest Florida or AL/MS landfall. Some show a Florida Panhandle landfall just to our east near Panama City (like the latest GFS run). The big takeaway here is that we shouldn’t focus on any particular model, but instead focus on the “big picture” trends. Potential local impacts seem possible in portions of south Alabama and northwest Florida based on the continuing model trends.
INTENSITY TO BE DETERMINED… Intensity guidance quality will improve once the system actually develops. For now, most global models suggest this will be a tropical storm that moves from south to north across the Gulf. There are a few outliers that suggest the system may ramp up to a category 1 or 2 hurricane, although those are OUTLIER model scenarios as of now.
“EAST IS BEAST, WEST IS BEST”… I hate to “wish” a hurricane/tropical storm on anyone, but the best case scenario for our local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida) would be for this system to make landfall TO OUR EAST, putting us on the “better” west side. Generally, the worst impacts (including the tornado threat) is worse on the right, front quadrant of the system. In this case, that means the north/east side. That’s why you’ll occasionally hear me say in our coverage that, “The east is the beast and the west is the best.” Depending on the actual track, there are consequential changes for our local forecast. Unfortunately, we’re still too many days out to know exactly what will happen.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE… We’re headed into the weekend and I know many folks don’t want to think about an event like this happening next week. I get it in that it’s been a long week and most folks want to relax this weekend. That’s fine, as long as everyone is aware that we have the potential for tropical issues next week. I am taking some time this afternoon to review our Hurricane Contingency Plan with our team. While this still very well could be a “miss” or “near miss” for our local area, the trends in the data support us being on heightened alert for a potential tropical storm or hurricane impact in our local area. No need for panic or worry, but just something to be aware of.
LOCATIONS… Folks in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida should all closely monitor the progress of this system as it develops in the days ahead. That includes the entirety of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida as potential local impacts are a possibility. Details will become more clear as we continue to process more model data over the next few days.
TIMEFRAME… Some significant changes in this subject area! Don’t be surprised if our “best estimates” for the timeline of local impacts changes MORE in the days ahead based on new data. Depending on when the system actually forms a low-level circulation and is classified as a tropical cyclone, impacts could begin as early as Tuesday night or extend to as late as Saturday. Wednesday, October 10 through Friday, October 12 is the best estimate for when local impacts are most likely in south Alabama and northwest Florida and that is IF (and that’s a big if, at this point) local impacts happen. That is a large timeframe that we will be able to get more specific with in the days ahead. Again, further changes are expected.
APP ALERTS… I’ll have PLENTY of updates throughout the day and into the weekend in the RedZone Weather app. Once you have the app downloaded on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you would like to get straight from me. Every alert is handcrafted and NOT automated.
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good Friday evening!