80% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN GULF… Chances continue to grow that a tropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 4 out of 5 chance (80% odds) that we’ll be tracking Tropical Storm Michael by Monday. While it’s still too early to say with confidence what impacts will be in specific locations, confidence is growing that impacts will happen sometime next week along the northern part of the Gulf Coast (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida). We’ll have a special Saturday edition of the RedZone Weather forecast video on Saturday morning with plenty more details. This evening, we’re delving into model data and looking at a few headlines…
– An area of low pressure currently situated in the western Caribbean Sea north of Honduras and east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is expected to move north into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
– There is a HIGH chance (80% chance now) that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form in the southern Gulf over the next 2-4 days.
– While it is still impossible to say with any type of certainty exactly where the center of this tropical system will make landfall, there is a HIGH chance that the landfall point will be along the northern Gulf Coast. Landfall is most likely to happen somewhere between Cameron, Louisiana eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. This means folks in northwest Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana need to closely monitor the progress of this developing system.
– Models will continue to have quite a bit of uncertainty with this system until the low-level circulation forms. It is typical for weather models to not have a good grip of specifics until we get a consolidated low pressure area. Take one-by-one model runs with a proverbial grain of salt.
– There’s at least some chance that the National Hurricane Center will start issuing advisories soon on this system as a “Potential Tropical Cyclone,” as tropical storm warnings may be required for part of the Yucatan Peninsula in the next day or two. Don’t let this nomenclature confuse you. A “Potential Tropical Cyclone” is basically a developing tropical storm without being called that. Anytime you see “Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC),” just replace the verbiage with “Developing Tropical Storm.”
– The timeline on this system has considerable uncertainty. Local impacts could begin as early as Tuesday night OR begin as late as Friday. We will be able to nail down a better timeframe in the days ahead as the system continues to develop. I would suggest at this point the GREATEST probability of local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida is on Wednesday, October 10, but again, we have to take that with a grain of salt. Still a lot to sort out in the timeline part of this storm…
– Just like many tropical systems, a lot will be determined by what side of the storm our local area is on. If most of us are on the “better” western flank of the system, local impacts could be very low and/or negligible. If we’re on the eastern flank of the system, potentially significant impacts (including the potential for many tornadoes) would be possible.
– If you haven’t already got a “hurricane prep kit,” I would strongly suggest you have one ready. Not just now, but throughout hurricane season. What should be in a prep kit? See this: https://www.ready.gov/build-a-kit
– Now is the time to download our free RedZone Weather app and set up the customized alerts. I have a sneaking suspicion I’ll be sending out a plethora of alerts in the days ahead. Turn ON Low-Level Alerts if you like a LOT of information. Turn ON Medium-Level Alerts if you just want the important stuff. You can also turn on your specific local county (if you’re in our Primary Coverage Area in south Alabama or northwest Florida) to get customized alerts for your area. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
– My next video update will be a special Saturday edition of the RedZone Weather forecast video that will be available on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app by 7:15AM. See you then! Let me know if you have any questions.