TROPICAL ISSUES LIKELY MIDWEEK
GROWING CHANCE OF LOCAL IMPACTS… There is now a significant chance that local impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida as what will likely be Tropical Storm/Hurricane Michael approaches from the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Unfortunately, there is still so much we do not know yet. Much of the uncertainty is because weather models do not perform well until the low-level circulation has actually formed. Regardless, models have been consistent in suggesting a northern Gulf Coast landfall at some point between Wednesday and Friday.
RZW EXEC
RZW EXEC EXCLUSIVE LOOK AT MODELS… This section won’t appear in our public-facing products as I don’t believe it is wise to show “one run solutions” to the public. Models have been consistent in suggesting a northern Gulf Coast landfall, somewhere between Cameron, Louisiana eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. That is a wide stretch of coastline that includes our local area.
First, let’s look at the reliable ECMWF/Euro model. The Euro has a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane (65-80mph max. winds) moving onshore centered near Navarre, FL. At the moment, the Euro suggests a landfall Thursday afternoon. The “angle of attack” is SSW to NNE, meaning much of our area would be on the “better” western side of the system, although this may be negated somewhat by the fact that the inner core of the storm will move directly over our eastern counties in this scenario. Here is the Euro valid at 7PM CDT on Thursday evening (aka 0Z time Friday). This is the 850mb (~5,000 feet above ground level) winds…
The next run of the Euro will be released around 1:30PM CDT. Despite this being the ‘best data’ around, runs of the Euro are only released two times per day, unlike many of the other models which are released 4+ times per day.
The second model we’ll look at is the latest run of the Global Forecast System (GFS), our American-based model. This is the latest run that was released moments ago. The GFS has consistently been much more bullish on intensity, and this run is no exception. It has a 970mb hurricane moving inland near Pensacola Beach, FL on Wednesday morning at 7AM. This would likely equate to a category 2 hurricane. Again, this is certainly on the upper echelon of the intensity guidance as of now and is probably somewhat of an outlier on the high end. The GFS also has a general SSE to NNW movement. If this solution verifies, there would likely be potentially significant impacts across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida. High winds, tornadoes, storm surge at the coast, etc.
Below is the final model we’ll assess in today’s update, the Canadian standard model. The Canadian shows a strengthening Tropical Storm Michael moving inland near the Alabama/Mississippi state line with much of our local area being on the volatile right-front quadrant of the storm. We note that at peak intensity on the Canadian data, Michael maxes out as a moderate tropical storm. The Canadian model shows a landfall happening on Wednesday morning.
THE BIG TAKEAWAYS… Now that you’ve seen 3 models with brief analysis, you probably have a better grasp of the uncertainty we’re dealing with. Despite the uncertainty, the model trends and signals are consistently suggesting:
1) A very high (80-90%) chance of tropical storm formation in the next 72 hours in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.
2) Potential impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. Impacts for specific areas will become more clear in the days ahead as we figure out the exact forecast track of this system. At bare minimum, we’re talking increased rain chances for south Alabama and northwest Florida. On the other end of the spectrum, borderline major hurricane impacts featuring high winds, tornadoes, storm surge, and flash flooding. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of those two extreme scenarios.
3) A northern Gulf Coast landfall is likely. As we’ve been advertising, the range of landfall locations seems to be between Cameron, Louisiana eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. That includes much of the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and NW Florida coastline.
NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… BY Sunday at 10PM CDT at the latest, but likely sooner. Feel free to contact me if you have specific questions. We’re in somewhat of a holding pattern until the low-level center of circulation forms.