TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DEVELOPING
GULF COAST IMPACTS LIKELY BY MIDWEEK…The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories as of 4PM on “Potential Tropical Cyclone #14” located in the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The image attached is a first look at the projected path of the system, issued by the National Hurricane Center. Tropical storm warnings have been posted for much of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba this evening. I would not be surprised in the next 24-48 hours if a Hurricane Watch or Tropical Storm Watch is needed for portions of the northern Gulf Coast. You can see that the cone of uncertainty/projected path includes much of our local area. Local impacts could begin as early as Tuesday evening, with a landfall MOST likely being on Thursday, although there is plenty of uncertainty with the timeline.
SPECIFIC TRACK TO DETERMINE A LOT… Despite the “official” forecasts kicking off with this first advisory, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to the magnitude of local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida. IF the center of circulation moves into our area, there is a chance that impacts could be pretty significant, depending on the overall strength of the system. There is also a chance that a weaker system could move just to our east, putting much of our area on the WEST side of the system, where the magnitude of impacts would be greatly reduced. More of this information will become increasingly clearer in the hours ahead as the system gets its act together and models process the system in a better way.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DESIGNATION… The National Hurricane Center uses the “potential tropical cyclone” designation so that tropical storm warnings and watches can be issued BEFORE the system actually forms. Don’t let this confuse you (as it’s honestly a confusing term even for some meteorologists!). Let “potential tropical cyclone” mean “Developing Tropical Storm” in your mind. That’s what I do and what I suggest everyone does in this situation.
INTENSITY TO BE DETERMINED… At bare minimum, we’re talking increased rain chances for south Alabama and northwest Florida. On the other end of the spectrum, borderline major hurricane impacts featuring high winds, tornadoes, storm surge, and flash flooding. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of those two extreme scenarios. We note that much of the model guidance has suggested a tropical storm moving north with maximum winds somewhere in the 50-70 mph range. The system may be stronger or weaker than that, but that’s the consensus range as of now.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… RedZone Weather is designed for folks in south Alabama and northwest Florida (see more here: redzoneweather.com/coverage) Impacts for specific areas will become more clear in the days ahead as we figure out the exact forecast track of this system. I’ve had several questions about the upcoming National Shrimp Festival, weekend plans for next weekend, etc. Unfortunately, it is still just too early to give guidance/recommendations as we don’t have a narrowed landfall location area or any confidence with the intensity forecast. Details should begin to become more clear on Monday.
REVIEW EVACUATION PLANS… If you’re near the coast or live south of Interstate 10, NOW is the time to review your potential hurricane evacuation route. There’s a good chance we won’t have massive evacuations, but there’s at least some chance that some evacuations will be required depending on the future track of what will be Tropical Storm or Hurricane Michael. Know where you’ll go and where you’ll stay IF an evacuation order is issued for your specific area.
HAVE A KIT READY… If you haven’t already got a “hurricane prep kit,” I would strongly suggest you have one ready. Not just now, but throughout hurricane season. What should be in a prep kit? See this: https://www.ready.gov/build-a-kit
APP ALERTS… Now is the time to download our free RedZone Weather app and set up the customized alerts. Lots of alerts today! Turn ON Low-Level Alerts if you like a LOT of information. Turn ON Medium-Level Alerts if you just want the important stuff. You can also turn on your specific local county (if you’re in our Primary Coverage Area in south Alabama or northwest Florida) to get customized alerts for your area. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
I’ll have updates throughout the evening and on Sunday in the RedZone Weather app. Enjoy your Saturday evening!