HOLDING PATTERN: MICHAEL DEVELOPING… Potential Tropical Cyclone #14, aka what will be Tropical Storm Michael over the next few days, is currently materializing over the western Caribbean Sea. There continues to be a significant chance that local impacts will be possible midweek across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Just to give you a sample of some of the uncertainty we’re still dealing with, see the attached image showing the ECMWF/Euro, GFS, CMC, and a new, upgraded version of the GFS models. A few Saturday evening notes…
TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS… We still have some uncertainty with the timeframe, but the best estimate is that the center of what will be Michael will move across near or across our area during the daytime hours of Wednesday. This means that impacts COULD begin as early as Tuesday evening and last until Thursday morning, potentially. We’ll definitely have to refine and update this over the next few days, so be sure to check back with me about the timeframe.
INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY… While Michael could be a tropical storm or hurricane as it crosses the Gulf from south to north, the core of the intensity guidance (and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center) calls for a strong (65-70mph) tropical storm at peak intensity. Again, we expect intensity models to get a better grasp of the future intensity of the system once the low-level center of circulation develops. That may be happening right now over the far western Caribbean Sea.
NEXT UPDATE… I’ll have my next update here on Facebook on Sunday morning by 7:15AM. More updates will be available between now and then in the RedZone Weather app.
APP… Be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the RedZone Weather app (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.
Have a great Saturday evening!