MICHAEL STRONGER; NOW FORECAST TO BE CAT. 2 AT LANDFALL… There’s good news and bad news to report this evening concerning the future of Tropical Storm Michael. The good news is the latest 4PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows a projected path that has been shifted even farther east from the last advisory. This, if it verifies, bodes very well for south Alabama and northwest Florida. The bad news for our friends just to our southeast is that Michael is now forecast to ramp up to a 100mph hurricane just before landfall, making it a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. See all the specs/details in the attached graphic.
MICHAEL STRONGER THIS EVENING… A “Hurricane Hunter” USAF aircraft investigating Michael found surface-level winds of 50mph recently in the right, front quadrant of the strengthening system. Michael very well could become a hurricane in 24-48 hours as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
CONE SHIFTED TO THE EAST… The official projected path from NHC now brings Michael inland in the Florida Panhandle, perhaps near Mexico Beach or Port Saint Joe, as a category 2 hurricane. It is critical to note that the cone of uncertainty extends from Pensacola eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. Based on this forecast, potentially significant hurricane impacts are possible in Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Washington [FL], Liberty, and Jackson [FL] counties. Note that these areas are just to the southeast of our primary coverage area. Any shift of the cone back to the west would again include our local area in the high risk zone.
HURRICANE & T.S. WATCHES LIKELY SOON… Don’t be surprised to see a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch posted for our northwest Florida counties (Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton) in the next 24 hours. Even though, at this point, it seems like most of the impacts will be to our east, winds are often higher at the immediate coast. Thus, a hurricane watch will probably be necessary for some local counties in addition to areas near and all around Panama City.
HEED EVACUATION ORDERS… I also would not be surprised to see voluntary or mandatory evacuation orders issued for parts of Gulf and Bay counties in the Florida Panhandle in the hours ahead. That includes places like Panama City, Lynn Haven, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, and Indian Pass. HEED the evacuation orders if you get one!