MICHAEL LIKELY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL…
HURRICANE WARNINGS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT… Hurricane Michael is moving north and continues to organize in the Yucatan Channel. The system will cross into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. While Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for many locales in our area, the greatest concern continues to be for areas just to our southeast. The core of Michael is expected to make landfall in the Florida panhandle as a major hurricane most likely in the daytime hours of Wednesday. A “last minute” turn to the northeast should prevent significant issues from occurring across much of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, although there is still major uncertainty as to WHEN this turn will begin. Unfortunately, there still is enough uncertainty in the forecast to warrant a Hurricane Watch for our northwest Florida coastal counties.
TROUGH TO FLING MICHAEL NORTHEAST… It may seem hard to believe, but a big upper-level trough currently situated over the Rocky Mountains in the western United States is the driver for exactly where Hurricane Michael will end up. If Michael moves slower today into tomorrow as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico, there’s a very high chance that the northeasterly turn will begin over the Gulf of Mexico. This would be the desirable scenario for south Alabama and northwest Florida, as the core of Michael would likely miss our area to the southeast. IF, however, Michael starts moving faster over the southern Gulf into tonight, there’s a chance the hurricane could move farther to the north, thus increasing our chance of significant impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida. I’ve got a detailed look at a few model scenarios in the video. Be sure to check it out.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR NW FLORIDA COUNTIES… The following counties are included in a Hurricane Watch in northwest Florida: Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia [FL]. Just to our east, Walton, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Calhoun [FL], Liberty, Jackson [FL], Washington [FL], and Holmes counties are included in the Hurricane Watch. The reason the hurricane watch has been issued is because hurricane conditions are possible in the next 48 hours, especially at the immediate coastline. This hurricane watch includes places like Pensacola, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Opal Beach, Mary Esther, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Eglin AFB, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Mexico Beach, Carrabelle, St. George Island, Eastpoint, Tyndall AFB, Laguna Beach, Rosemary Beach, and Seaside.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTH ALABAMA COUNTIES… Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [AL], Monroe, Conecuh, Butler and Covington counties are all now under a Tropical Storm Watch in our local area. Just to our east, Crenshaw, Coffee, Geneva, Dale, Houston, and Henry counties are involved in the tropical storm watch as well. There is a good chance that tropical storm conditions won’t happen across many of the interior counties of southwest Alabama, although until we have more confidence in the track guidance, I think it’s a great preemptive move on the part of NWS/NHC to have these counties included in the Tropical Storm Watch.
UPDATED POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT… So much will depend on the exact track of Hurricane Michael in the days ahead. Note that the following potential impacts assessment is for south Alabama and northwest Florida, areas mainly to the WEST of where the center of Michael is forecast to be over the next few days.
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… Since Hurricane Michael may be a major hurricane at landfall, there is a growing chance that the wind field associated with the landfalling system may be quite large. In addition, since we’re still not entirely sure where the core of the hurricane will move inland, that is why we have a hurricane watch in effect from AL/FL border eastward to the Suwanee River. The hurricane force winds won’t extend outward very far compared to the much larger tropical storm force wind field, however because of track uncertainty, it is a prudent move to have the Hurricane Watch in place for many more areas. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael will pass just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system. IF this scenario pans out, inland areas of southwest Alabama would have very little in the way of wind impacts. Gusty winds (20-30mph) would still be possible at the immediate coastline/beach areas. I caution, however, that the cone of uncertainty extends from near Pensacola eastward to Cedar Key, FL. That is still a very wide swath of coastline where the center of circulation may make landfall. If the track shifts farther west in future advisories, we will have to significantly adjust the high wind potential impacts for our local area.
TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for most of us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). IF the center of circulation makes more of a northerly jog toward Laguna Beach or Destin, however, there could be a tornado risk across Walton, Okaloosa, Covington counties, in addition to the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass region of southeast Alabama.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 2-3” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 7-8” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).
STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… A Storm Surge Warning will go into effect later this evening for much of the Florida Panhandle. If you live near or at the immediate coastline, TAKE THE STORM SURGE THREAT SERIOUSLY. 8-10 feet of water rise is not out of the question in low-lying areas near the immediate beaches near and south of Panama City. Storm surge of 2-4 feet is not out of the question at Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and points just to the east and west of there. Again, if you get an evacuation order, HEED IT and leave! Storm surge kills way too many people in our nation.
APP APP APP… PLENTY more updates can be found this afternoon in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
Let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice Monday evening!