HIGH-LEVEL ALERT
*EXTREMELY DETAILED* LOOK AT LOCAL MICHAEL IMPACTS…
LONG POST ABOUT HURRICANE MICHAEL… Hurricane Michael continues to strengthen and is on the cusp of becoming a major hurricane this afternoon. Please read the entirety of the post as I can just about guarantee 95% of questions will be answered. Landfall in the Florida Panhandle, perhaps near Panama City, is likely to happen in the daytime hours of Wednesday. Impacts will be potentially devastating for communities near and just to the east of the center of circulation. All of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida (the RedZone Weather primary coverage area) will be on the better, western side of this powerful hurricane as it moves ashore. There are numerous official watches and warnings in place that can be potentially confusing and seem conflicting with the forecast for what will occur in your area. This extremely detailed post is designed to address those issues. I’ve broken it into several sections. You’ll see each section begins with a headline with 3 dots on each side of the headline… Let’s go!
…BROAD OVERVIEW…
1PM ADVISORY… Maximum winds are at 110mph, making Michael a strong category 2 hurricane. Further strengthening is anticipated in the hours ahead. 25.4° N and 86.4° W is where the center of circulation is located. That is 335 miles south of Panama City, Florida. Movement continues to be north at 12mph.
LARGE WIND FIELDS… Hurricane Michael will almost certainly be a major hurricane at landfall, there is a high chance that the wind field extending outward from the center of circulation will be quite large. The core of the hurricane force (74+ mph) winds will be confined to 35-40 miles in any given direction of the center (radius, not diameter) of circulation. Tropical storm force winds extend outward a lot farther, however. Tropical storm force winds extend outward 160 miles to the northeast and 60-70 miles to the northwest (radius). That means there is a wide 230 mile swath of tropical storm force winds approaching the coastline.
DEVASTATING WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR PANAMA CITY… The core of Hurricane Michael will very likely move onshore in Bay, Gulf, Walton, or Franklin counties in the Florida Panhandle. This very well may be a devastating hurricane for areas near Panama City, Tyndall Air Force Base, Mexico Beach, and Port St. Joe. This is a stretch of coastline that has not had a major hurricane in many, many years. I don’t make statements like this to scare anyone (I’m not in that business and never want to be. Sensationalizing helps no one!) but this could be a very impactful, potentially devastating situation, especially near the coastline where the core of Michael moves in.
EVACUATION ORDERS… If you get a mandatory evacuation order, YOU LEAVE. Period. I know there are circumstances that sometimes prevent people from leaving, but I hope that everyone will remember that property can be replaced, YOU CAN’T. You don’t want to play with a major hurricane, ever. This is as serious of a situation as we ever have, and I am very concerned for the folks just to our southeast in Panama City and surrounding areas.
TORNADO POTENTIAL… The tornado risk across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida (WEST of Destin and Crestview) will be negligible/very low. This is because these areas will be on the west side of this hurricane. The right, front quadrant of Hurricane Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. This means an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas near and east of the center of circulation. Panama City, Tallahassee, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola, Bonifay, Wewahitchka, Mexico Beach, Tyndall AFB, Dothan, and Cottonwood.
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… If you are north or west of Okaloosa, Covington counties, you generally have a very low risk of flash flooding. Rain amounts in areas west of these two counties will likely be less than 2 inches in total. In fact, some spots across west Alabama in Washington and Clarke counties may end up with no rain! If you’re IN Covington, Okaloosa, Crenshaw, or Pike counties, there is a low-end risk of flash flooding as 2-4” of rain could happen. If you’re in the Wiregrass region of southeast Alabama or the Florida Panhandle EAST of Destin and Crestview, there is a significant risk of flash flooding. Some spots near Port St. Joe and Apalachicola may end up with 6-8 inches of rain before Michael moves out.
STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Miramar Beach eastward to the Anclote River. Water level inundation of 5-10 feet above normal tide levels are possible. This would be a substantial storm surge for areas near Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, St. George Island, extending into the Big Bend region of Florida near St. Marks and Cedar Key. Very serious storm surge situation! Again, it cannot be stressed enough, IF you get an evacuation order near the immediate coast, LEAVE! There is a high chance emergency workers won’t be able to reach you if there is an emergency during this hurricane if you’re near where the center moves onshore.
APP… Many consistent updates concerning the broad overview will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
…COUNTY-BY-COUNTY FORECAST…
The following county-by-county forecasts are based on the CURRENT projected path of Hurricane Michael, showing a landfall near Panama City, Florida. Future advisories may cause the following impacts to have to be adjusted upward or downward, depending on the exact track of the hurricane.
OKALOOSA COUNTY, FL…
Locations: Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill.
Wind Speed: 45-65mph winds possible, with gusts up to 70mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along Choctawhatchee Bay. Wind speeds likely to be less in inland communities. Areas near Fort Walton Beach and Destin may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 55-80mph.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 1AM Wednesday and extend to 3AM Thursday. Core risk time will be 7AM to 10PM Wednesday.
Rain: 2-5”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and Niceville.
Tornado Risk: Low.
Official Products: Hurricane Warning & Storm Surge Watch AND a Flash Flood Watch
SANTA ROSA COUNTY, FL…
Locations: Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown.
Wind Speed: 35-55mph winds possible, with gusts up to 65mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and bays/coastal waters. Wind speeds likely to be less in inland communities.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 1AM Wednesday and extend to 1AM Thursday. Core risk time will be 7AM to 10PM Wednesday.
Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Navarre.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Hurricane Warning & Storm Surge Watch
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, FL…
Locations: Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid.
Wind Speed: 30-50mph winds possible, with gusts up to 60mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and bays/coastal waters. Wind speeds likely to be less in inland communities.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 2AM Wednesday and extend to 11PM. Core risk time will be 7AM to 9PM Wednesday.
Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Pensacola Beach.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Hurricane Warning & Storm Surge Watch
BALDWIN COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear.
Wind Speed: 20-30mph winds possible, with gusts up to 40mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and bays/coastal waters. Wind speeds likely to be less in inland communities.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 3AM Wednesday and extend to 10PM. Core risk time will be 7AM to 7PM Wednesday.
Rain: 0-2”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Orange Beach and Gulf Shores.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning & Hurricane Watch south of I-10. Tropical Storm Watch north of I-10.
MOBILE COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, and Grand Bay.
Wind Speed: 20-30mph winds possible, with gusts up to 40mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and bays/coastal waters. Wind speeds likely to be less in inland communities.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 4AM Wednesday and extend to 9PM. Core risk time will be 7AM to 7PM Wednesday.
Rain: 0-2”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Orange Beach and Gulf Shores.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning & Hurricane Watch south of I-10.
COVINGTON COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, and Fairfield.
Wind Speed: 20-40mph winds possible, with gusts up to 50mph. Higher winds likely to happen in the southeastern part of the county near Florala. Wind speeds likely to be less in NW part of county near Red Level.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 4AM Wednesday and extend to 11PM. Core risk time will be 7AM to 7PM Wednesday.
Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Florala and Wing.
Tornado Risk: Low.
Official Products: Hurricane Watch & Inland Tropical Storm Warning AND a Flash Flood Watch
BUTLER COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home.
Wind Speed: 20-30mph winds possible, with gusts up to 40mph. Higher winds likely to happen in the southeastern part of the county near Oaky Streak. Wind speeds likely to be much less in NW part of county near Forest Home.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 6AM Wednesday and extend to 11PM. Core risk time will be 9AM to 7PM Wednesday.
Rain: 1-2”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Oaky Streak and Georgiana.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Inland Tropical Storm Watch
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall.
Wind Speed: 20-40mph winds possible, with gusts up to 50mph. Higher winds likely to happen in the southeastern part of the county near Roberts & Dixie. Wind speeds likely to be less in NW part of county near Huxford and Poarch.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 6AM Wednesday and extend to 11PM. Core risk time will be 7AM to 7PM Wednesday.
Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Roberts & Dixie. Lesser rain amounts to the west near Atmore & Poarch.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Inland Tropical Storm Watch
CONECUH COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, and Belleville.
Wind Speed: 20-40mph winds possible, with gusts up to 50mph.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 6AM Wednesday and extend to 11PM. Core risk time will be 7AM to 7PM Wednesday.
Rain: 1-3” of rain possible.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Inland Tropical Storm Watch
MONROE COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Homewood, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska.
Wind Speed: 10-30mph winds possible, with gusts up to 40mph.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 7AM Wednesday and extend to 10PM. Core risk time will be 9AM to 7PM Wednesday.
Rain: 0-2” in total, most likely.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Inland Tropical Storm Watch
…OTHER AREAS…
WIREGRASS & SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
HOUSTON, GENEVA, COFFEE, DALE, HENRY COUNTIES… A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Geneva and Houston counties as the core of Hurricane Michael may move near or just to the south of these two counties. Winds could possibly gust from 70-90mph in places like Geneva, Slocomb, Dothan, and Cottonwood in the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday as the center of Michael moves by. Tree damage is LIKELY in portions of Geneva and Houston counties. Tornadoes will be possible across much of southeast Alabama as this area will primarily be to the east of the center of circulation as Michael moves by. A Tropical Storm Warning continues for Coffee, Dale, and Henry counties. Tropical storm force winds 40-60mph possible in these areas with gusts up to 70mph. Rain amounts likely to be 2-5” depending on the spot. Areas near Dothan are more likely to have higher rain amounts, while areas back on the west side of the region like Elba may have 2-3” of rain.
WEST ALABAMA…
CLARKE, WASHINGTON, WILCOX, CHOCTAW, MARENGO COUNTIES… Some rain showers are possible throughout the day on Wednesday. Little to no impact is expected at this time due to Hurricane Michael. No tornado risk. Breezy conditions are likely with 10-15mph wind.
NEAR MONTGOMERY…
MONTGOMERY, LOWNDES, AUTAUGA, ELMORE, BULLOCK, TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES… Rain possible throughout the day on Wednesday. Some periods of heavy rain possible. High winds are not expected. Very low to no tornado risk. Breezy conditions are likely with 10-15mph wind. Flash Flood Watch in effect for Bullock County.
NEAR AUBURN & COLUMBUS…
MACON, LEE, CHAMBERS, RUSSELL COUNTIES… Heavy rain is possible at times throughout the day, especially in the evening hours. 15-25mph wind expected, with gusts up to 40mph. Tropical storm force winds are possible in southern Russell County as the core of Hurricane Michael moves by late on Wednesday into early Thursday. Flash Flood Watch in effect for Russell County.
NEAR TROY & EUFAULA…
PIKE & BARBOUR COUNTIES… Heavy rain is possible at times throughout the day, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. 20-30mph wind expected, with gusts up to 45mph. Tropical storm force winds are possible in these areas as the core of Hurricane Michael moves by to the southeast.
NEAR PANAMA CITY, PORT ST. JOE, MARIANNA, BLOUNTSTOWN…
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EAST OF DESTIN… Devastating impacts are possible at the immediate coastline near Panama City, Port St. Joe, Mexico Beach, Tyndall AFB, and Apalachicola. Impacts are likely to be severe in Laguna Beach, Seaside, and southern Walton County. 100-120mph wind gusts are possible. Damage could be widespread and extensive. Rain amounts could exceed 6-8”, setting the stage for a significant flash flooding event. Tornadoes will be likely throughout the day on Wednesday. Storm surge could be extensive and highly damaging. Residents of this area are VEHEMENTLY encouraged to HEED evacuation orders for their respective area if given.
…SET UP APP ALERTS…
APP… Download the RedZone Weather app to continue to receive our constant updates. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
More updates this evening!