HEAVY RAIN & STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY
RZW Exec partners, good Friday morning! We have another round of active weather slated to happen on Saturday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This event will feature a conditional, low-end risk of severe thunderstorms confined to the immediate coastal areas of our region. The headline risk over the next 24-48 hours will come from the potential of flash flooding as heavy rain is expected.
ISOLATED COASTAL STORMS
The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include coastal areas of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This means that a few isolated, brief strong to severe storms will be possible in these areas with the main concern being a brief, spin-up tornado or damaging wind gust in the stronger storms that happen. Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Milton, Pace, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Gulf Breeze, Mary Esther, Niceville, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Foley, Elberta, Magnolia Springs, Point Clear, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, and Theodore are included in this low-end severe weather risk zone.
The remainder of our local area is included in the “General Thunderstorms” zone, which is where weaker thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits. Thunder and lightning will be possible, but the overall severe weather risk is much lower for inland communities. This includes places like Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Evergreen, Monroeville, Greenville, Thomasville, Andalusia, Opp, Chatom, Jackson, Bay Minette, Citronelle, Century, Jay, Munson, and Crestview.
MAIN CONCERN: FLASH FLOODING
The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (above) shows much of our area picking up 2 to 3 inches of rain on Saturday before the end of the day, however I think these totals may be a bit lower than some of the actual totals that will likely happen. Isolated higher totals of 4-6″ of rain can’t be ruled out. The National Weather Service agrees with this assessment and has placed much of our local area in an Elevated Risk zone for flash flooding on Saturday (below).
RAIN/STORM TIMING
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely begin very early in the morning hours of Saturday. The low-end severe weather risk will start around midday (1PM) and last until a line of storms moves east of our area, probably no later than 11PM. Our public forecasts will reflect the severe weather timing window being from 1PM to 11PM, with the core risk happening from 4PM to 9PM. Again, it’s coastal areas that have the severe weather risk. The risk of flash flooding will last well into Sunday across the region as rain totals continue to add up. Below is the 3km North American Model view valid at 5PM on Saturday when a line of heavy rain and storms will likely be moving from west to east across our area.
CONTINUING COVERAGE
We will continue to post updates in the public-facing section of the RedZone Weather app in addition to our social media platforms today, tonight, and into Saturday. Let me know if you have any decision support needs, questions, or concerns. I look forward to seeing many of you in the Brewton, AL Christmas Parade this evening. You can’t miss our float! It’s big, it’s (quite) red, and it will feature me in a red suit with my friend, Buddy the Elf. Looking forward to it.