ISOLATED STRONG STORMS SATURDAY
LOW-END RISK ON SATURDAY… We have a low-end, marginal risk of severe weather setting up for the daytime hours of Saturday as a powerful cold front moves through south Alabama and northwest Florida. While most of us will have brief periods of heavy rain, there is a low-end risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The risk of an isolated tornado remains very low, but NOT zero.
80 percent of the time in these low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk situations, our area ends up not having any tornado warnings, but that means two out of ten times features at least one tornado warning.
WHO IS INVOLVED… ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is included in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Saturday as defined by the Storm Prediction Center. In addition, all zones in southeast and central Alabama are included in the low-end risk zone. Basically everyone south of a line from Hamilton to Oneonta to Roanoke is included in this low-end risk, including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Greenville, Troy, Dothan, Thomasville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Mobile, Fairhope, Pensacola, Destin, Panama City, and surrounding areas.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS… For vast majority of us, we’ll have intermittent times of heavy rain with some thunder and lightning as well. There is a low-end risk of damaging straight line winds and a few, brief tornadoes as well. If any tornadoes occur, they will most likely be weak and not last very long at all. As I often say in our public products though, if ANY tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Rain amounts with this system will likely be 1 to 2 inches in total, meaning flash flooding hazards should be limited.
STORM TIMING… The risk of severe weather will last from 10AM Saturday to 7PM Saturday for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will likely enter west Alabama from Mississippi in the late morning hours. These storms will move across our region from west to east through the Saturday afternoon hours.
MUCH COLDER SUNDAY… After the passage of the cold front that is causing this low-end severe weather potential, significantly colder air will move into our region from the northwest late Saturday into Sunday. While temperatures will likely not be AS cold as initially indicated, our entire region will likely plunge into the 20s by Monday morning. The daytime hours of Monday look to be a bit warmer than we initially expected as well. High temperatures on Monday will surge into the 50s.
CONTINUING COVERAGE… Our public messaging about this low-end risk of severe weather will kick off shortly with Low-Level Alerts being issued here in the RedZone Weather app. My next RZW Exec update will be issued tomorrow (Friday, January 18) no later than 5PM. Let me know if you have any questions! Have a good afternoon!