EXPANDED LEVEL 2 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone to include the entirety of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be the main concerns as a line of storms moves east. There also is a small chance that we could see a few supercell storms in west Alabama. Model trends continue to support a bit more atmospheric instability that could lead to more instances of severe storms during the daytime hours of Saturday across our region. Have a way to get the warnings on Saturday! That’s the summary, here are a few more Friday evening notes…
LEVEL 2 SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR SATURDAY… All of south Alabama and northwest Florida is now included in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk. The risk area has been expanded somewhat since this morning. A Level 2 risk means scattered severe storms could happen. “Scattered severe storms” means a few isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.
WHO IS INVOLVED? OUR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… Locally, the following communities are included in the Level 2 risk zone: Mobile, Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Milton, Jay, Berrydale, Munson, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Andalusia, Florala, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Dauphin Island, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Wilmer, Fairhope, Silverhill, Foley, Robertsdale, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdidio Key, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Point Clear, Bay Minette, Tensaw, Stockton, Perdido, Loxley, Walnut Hill, Jay, Century, Bratt, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Brewton, Flomaton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lyeffion, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Monroeville, Uriah, Megargal, Beatrice, Perdue Hill, Tunnel Springs, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Gosport, Chatom, Millry, Leroy, McIntosh, and Fruitdale. We note Tuscaloosa, Demopolis, Camden, and Selma are included in the Level 2 risk in central Alabama.
RISK TIMES… The risk of severe weather will last from 10AM Saturday to 7PM Saturday for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will likely enter west Alabama from Mississippi in the late morning hours. These storms will move across our region from west to east through the Saturday afternoon hours.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS… The concern on Saturday will be due to the low-end risk of isolated, brief tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms that happen. While there will be somewhat of a ‘mismatch’ of severe weather ingredients (with greater shear values to our north and instability fairly limited to the south), there could be one or two tornadoes and a few instances of damage due to strong winds in any storms that can “go severe.” Flash flooding risks will be lower in this system due to the fast forward motion of the line of storms. There could be pea- or dime-size hail in the stronger storms, but larger hail is not expected.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Anytime there is a tornado warning for any part of our 12 county primary coverage area, we stream uninterrupted severe weather coverage in the RedZone Weather app and on Facebook Live. See redzoneweather.com/coverage for more information about our coverage commitment.
COLD AIR MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY… After the passage of the cold front that is causing this low-end severe weather potential, significantly colder air will move into our region from the northwest late Saturday into Sunday. While temperatures will likely not be AS cold as initially indicated, our entire region will likely plunge into the 20s by Monday morning. The daytime hours of Monday look to be a bit warmer than we initially expected as well. High temperatures on Monday will surge into the 50s.
MORE RAIN NEXT WEEK… Another cold front is set to approach our area in the middle part of next week. Rain chances will be elevated late Tuesday into Wednesday. It’s too early to say whether severe weather will be a potential issue, but that is a possibility we will need to monitor. Let’s get through this low-end severe weather risk on Saturday then we will start focusing on midweek of the upcoming week.
APP ALERTS… Be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download) in your respective (iOS & Android) app store. I’ll have plenty of updates throughout the day on Saturday as we track the storms moving in from the west. Once you have the app downloaded, visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me. I’ll be sending quite a few Low-Level Alerts starting early Saturday morning.
NEXT UPDATE… My next long-form update will be posted by 7:15AM on Saturday morning. Beyond that, we will shift to monitoring radar trends with plenty of updates in the RedZone Weather app. Live tornado warning coverage will be provided as needed. Have a good evening!