LOCALIZED SNOW IMPACTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
RZW EXEC SNOW UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good Saturday evening! We’re looking ahead to Tuesday when we could have winter weather/snow impacts across parts of south Alabama. For now, snow impacts look to remain limited to parts of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Wilcox, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. Impacts could begin as early as Tuesday morning and extend into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Black ice on area roadways will be a possibility, especially in areas along and WEST of the Interstate 65 corridor. Northwest Florida, south central Alabama, and Mobile & Baldwin counties will likely have a few flurries, but not much more in the way of snow impacts. I will be publishing a much more detailed county-by-county analysis of what you can expect in tomorrow’s (Sunday) RZW Exec update, however this is an early “heads up” that there could be travel impacts and more over west Alabama on Tuesday. Below is the post I’ll be pushing publicly shortly in the RedZone Weather app and across our social platforms. Let me know if you have any early decision support needs or questions. Otherwise, you can expect to hear from me tomorrow evening. Have a good Saturday evening!
SNOW ACCUMULATION FIRST FORECAST; BLACK ICE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT… Tuesday, January 29 will likely be the first “snow day” that parts of our local area have had in quite some time. While there is still a high chance that much of our area will NOT have snow accumulation, west Alabama will likely be our local focus points for the area that have some accumulation. Snowflakes and flurries (with no accumulation or real impact) is what much of our area will have. Much of northwest Florida and southeast Alabama will have rain with very little in the way of snow/flurries. This is still very much an evolving forecast with high UNCERTAINTY, as are most “southern snow” events. Please continue to check back with me on Sunday and over the next few days in the lead-up to this event as more clarity will arrive with more forecast model data.
THE SNOW SITUATION ON TUESDAY… Rain showers will likely begin late Monday evening. Rain chances increase overnight into Tuesday morning. This will be a very cold rain with temperatures holding steady in the low-40s. There will be a (likely brief) change over from rain to sleet and ultimately snow during the late morning hours of Tuesday, first over west Alabama. The rain/snow line will progressively move east throughout the afternoon on Tuesday. There is some indication that dry air moving in behind the powerful cold front may overtake the layers of the atmosphere that are more moist and conducive for “snow-making.” If this happens, obviously snow would be more limited. On the contrary, there’s also a chance that we could have a few hours of light snow over west Alabama that spread eastward toward the I-65 corridor and beyond.
SNOW/MIX TIMING… Rain will be in progress Tuesday morning. The change over to snow will happen across west Alabama between 9AM and 1PM. This rain/snow line will move eastward and will likely reach places near Interstate 65 in the early afternoon hours. Snow/flurries will end from west to east in the early evening hours of Tuesday.
POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS… This is information that most people care about: Impacts, aka how it affects YOU. While there could be a light dusting of snow across Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Washington counties in west Alabama (and points north), accumulation is much less likely across other counties in our region. Local roadways and bridges could potentially be affected by ice and snow buildup across these counties on Tuesday from late morning extending into Wednesday. For communities along, south, and east of the Interstate 65 corridor, the main concern won’t be snow/ice accumulation as much as it will be the potential for black ice that builds up on area roadways Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES… Winter storms and snow are two of the most difficult things we deal with in the weather forecast world for the Deep South. This is due, in part, to the relative infrequent nature of these systems. We don’t have a lot of good analogs to compare the atmosphere to in these situations. I say that very directly to say that this remains a LOW CONFIDENCE forecast. There can and will be changes that we need to make over the next few days. Please continue to check with me as we update the latest information. You can always get the latest info I post across social media and on our website in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
NEXT UPDATE… My next #rzw forecast video will be posted by 2PM on Sunday afternoon. Let me know if you have specific questions and I’ll do my best to give you the best information we have as of right now.