SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec members, confidence continues to increase that the Deep South will have another round of severe weather on Saturday into Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has included nearly all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone valid for the afternoon and evening hours of Saturday, meaning isolated severe storms will be possible. We’re still 3 to 4 days out from this potential severe weather event, so details can and will change. As of now, it looks like the greater dynamics will set up just to our north across the northern parts of Mississippi and northwest Alabama.
SATURDAY STORMS… We will initially be monitoring areas to our northwest across Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and western Tennessee for the development of stronger storms early in the day on Saturday. The threat of severe weather will shift into south Alabama and northwest Florida likely in the afternoon and evening hours of Saturday and last until Sunday morning. All modes of severe weather will be concerns, including a few tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, hail, and flash flooding.
STORM PLACEMENT – LOCAL AREA… The greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms in our local area will likely happen across the northwestern counties (Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, Wilcox, and Monroe counties in west Alabama). Similar to last weekend’s severe weather risk, we ALL have at least some risk of severe weather going into this weekend, however. This means that all of us should have a way to receive urgent weather warnings.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Rain showers may be happening as early as Saturday morning. The severe weather risk will gradually ramp up throughout the afternoon. The core risk of severe weather for south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely be from 6PM Saturday to 6AM Sunday, although the risk may linger later into Sunday morning as the cold front may start moving a bit slower to the east. We note that the Storm Prediction Center has our area included in their Day 4 (Sunday – image below) outlook too for the Level 2 slight risk. Because of the way the SPC convective outlooks are issued (valid for a 24 hour period from 6AM to 6AM), this suggests potentially a lingering risk into Sunday morning. There will likely be some lingering rain showers into late Sunday morning/early afternoon after the passage of the strong/severe storms.
We’ve already started our public messaging for this potential severe weather setup. I’ll have more updates in the days ahead. Let me know if you have specific decision support needs regarding this severe weather situation. Have a wonderful Wednesday evening!