RZW Exec partners, model data has been quite consistent in suggesting that Alabama and northwest Florida may deal with a potentially significant round of severe weather during the upcoming weekend. While it is a bit unusual to discuss an event in detail 5 days out, I believe, based on the data, that it is warranted at this point. I won’t be “sounding the alarm” publicly just yet, but if model trends continue, we will have to ramp our messaging up considerably as there could be a chance of significant tornadoes. It is too early to say publicly IF significant tornadoes will happen, where they will happen, and when they will happen. What you need to know at this point is that there is a chance of tornadoes happening, potentially a few significant ones. As always, please let me know if you have any questions. I’ll have further RZW Exec updates later in the week to keep you posted. Below is the post I will be issuing publicly in the next few hours…
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… Tornadoes and all modes of severe weather will be possible this weekend across parts of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Saturday and Sunday with further forecast refinements likely over the next few days. While it is too early to know specific details, the big takeaway as of now is that we all need to be aware of the potential for severe weather this weekend when tornadoes may become possible. There is quite a bit of information that is still uncertain, but let’s discuss what we do know as of now…
RISK SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY… We don’t know exactly what types of storms will happen on Saturday. We could have supercell thunderstorms, a QLCS/squall line, or perhaps both. Regardless, the greatest threat of severe weather will likely set up across eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi on Saturday. Late Saturday into Palm Sunday is when the tornado risk will likely be greatest across Alabama, northwest Florida, eastern Mississippi, and western Georgia.
CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP… There will be a shortwave trough and associated cold front positioned to our west on Saturday. A warm front will likely lift northward throughout the day Saturday, meaning much of our region should be involved in the warm sector where severe thunderstorms may happen. In addition to a favorable low-level jet (winds at about 5,000 feet off the ground at 40-50 knots), there will be plenty of helicity (changing of the winds with height) and instability/CAPE to fuel potential storms. Most of the “ingredients” seem to be in place to support exactly what one would expect in mid-April across the Deep South: The potential for tornadoes and severe weather. This is nothing unusual or out of the ordinary. March and April are our primary severe weather season.
*NOW* IS THE TIME TO GET PREPARED… It is so critical to have a plan of action to know what you would do and where you would go if a tornado warning is issued for your area. Do you have multiple reliable ways to receive urgent weather warnings? Facebook is not a good way to receive warnings, as the platform will often show you posts from days ago but not necessarily posts that are posted immediately. One way for you to get the warnings in south Alabama and northwest Florida is in our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and turn ON all of the alerts you want to receive in the Alert Settings area.
CHECK BACK WITH ME FOR UPDATES… This is an evolving severe weather situation that will require further forecast updates. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days as we continue to get more details based on the latest data. No need to panic or stress, but there is a need to be aware of the situation and have a “severe weather action plan.”
My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday. Let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great evening!