BEAUTIFUL WEDNESDAY; SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS WEEKEND… We get a nice, warm, beautiful Wednesday before strong to severe thunderstorms become possible in the latter half of the weekend. More details about the severe weather setup for the Deep South are below. Much of the day on Thursday will be dry and warm with highs again in the mid-80s. Showers may return on Friday before increasing rain chances for Saturday into Sunday. Early next week looks dry and warm before another rain event a week from today. That’s your forecast summary. Here are the details…
WARM & DRY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING… No major weather issues are expected today, tonight, or Thursday other than patchy areas of fog being possible Thursday morning. High temperatures today will be quite warm for a mid-April day, in the mid- to upper-80s for most spots. I would not be shocked if some areas hit 87° or 88° by 3PM, although most spots will peak in the 84-86° range. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies with lows around 60°. Thursday will be mostly sunny with increasing amounts of clouds late in the day with highs again in the mid-80s.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY… Our next low chance of rain happens very late in the evening hours of Thursday, followed by 20-30% chance of rain for Friday. Most spots will probably be dry Friday, but I can’t rule out small showers especially in the evening hours.
RAIN CHANCES EDGE UPWARD SATURDAY… We’ll call it a 30-40% chance of rain during the daytime hours of Saturday as a warm front lifts northward across our region. I’ll be closely monitoring a developing system to our west on Saturday that could produce severe weather and tornadoes across parts of northern Louisana and western Mississippi. That same system moves east and causes our severe weather issues late Saturday into Sunday.
SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER SETUP… If you saw my detailed post last evening, not much has changed. A potentially significant severe weather setup will happen late Saturday into Palm Sunday across much of Alabama. It’s too early to know specific details, but we note that the highest tornado risk will likely happen across central Alabama. See a review of the details below.
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… Tornadoes and all modes of severe weather will be possible this weekend across parts of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Saturday and Sunday with further forecast refinements likely over the next few days. While it is too early to know specific details, the big takeaway as of now is that we all need to be aware of the potential for severe weather this weekend when tornadoes may become possible. There is quite a bit of information that is still uncertain, but let’s discuss what we do know as of now…
RISK SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY… We don’t know exactly what types of storms will happen on Saturday. We could have supercell thunderstorms, a QLCS/squall line, or perhaps both. Regardless, the greatest threat of severe weather will likely set up across eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi on Saturday. Late Saturday into Palm Sunday is when the tornado risk will likely be greatest across Alabama, northwest Florida, eastern Mississippi, and western Georgia.
CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP… There will be a shortwave trough and associated cold front positioned to our west on Saturday. A warm front will likely lift northward throughout the day Saturday, meaning much of our region should be involved in the warm sector where severe thunderstorms may happen. In addition to a favorable low-level jet (winds at about 5,000 feet off the ground at 40-50 knots), there will be plenty of helicity (changing of the winds with height) and instability/CAPE to fuel potential storms. Most of the “ingredients” seem to be in place to support exactly what one would expect in mid-April across the Deep South: The potential for tornadoes and severe weather. This is nothing unusual or out of the ordinary. March and April are our primary severe weather season.
NOW IS THE TIME TO GET PREPARED… It is so critical to have a plan of action to know what you would do and where you would go if a tornado warning is issued for your area. Do you have multiple reliable ways to receive urgent weather warnings? Facebook is not a good way to receive warnings, as the platform will often show you posts from days ago but not necessarily posts that are posted immediately. One way for you to get the warnings in south Alabama and northwest Florida is in our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and turn ON all of the alerts you want to receive in the Alert Settings area.
AFTER STORMS, NICE START TO NEXT WEEK… Monday into Tuesday look dry and warm with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. There should be a good amount of sunshine each day. Rain chances will likely rise on Wednesday of next week.
See all the details, including a graphical view of the next 7 days, in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!