TORNADO RISK INCREASING FOR SUNDAY MORNING… Severe weather parameters are increasing for Sunday morning when a vigorous line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida from west to east. There are some model indications that point to this being a line of supercell thunderstorms. That scenario would likely increase the tornado potential, as compared to a classic squall line/QLCS that is more common around our region. In addition to tornadoes, damaging straight line wind gusts, small hail, and lightning are also likely. Specifics continue to come into focus. Let’s look at details…
LEVEL 2 RISK, FOR NOW… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include the entire region (all of south Alabama and northwest Florida) in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. Don’t be surprised if an outlook upgrade is needed by tomorrow morning to account for this heightened severe weather potential.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SUNDAY MORNING… The most likely scenario for Sunday morning is that a potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move by from west to east. These storms will be capable of producing isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line wind gusts, in addition to small hail, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, and lots of lightning. The big question mark at this point is whether we’ll have supercell thunderstorms forming out ahead of the main line of storms. If that happens and we do get supercell development along the line of storms, that would cause the tornado threat to become more elevated. Some models are suggesting that potential this evening, including the reliable ECMWF/Euro model.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… The 12 hour window when severe weather will be most likely remains from 4AM to 4PM on Sunday with the core window being from 7AM to 2PM. We note storms could happen before or after this timeframe, but that is the MOST likely window. Please keep in mind that is the “severe weather timing” and not RAIN timing. Rain is likely intermittently long before that timeframe.
BE “WEATHER AWARE” THIS WEEKEND… Don’t let your guard down this weekend until after our severe weather risk passes on Sunday. We all need to have away to get the urgent weather warnings, especially Sunday morning when the main risk happens. I’ll have updates as needed this weekend in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of app) and then read the alert descriptions so you can pick the ones you want to receive. All of our alerts are currently handcrafted by me. Unlike other sources, we won’t send you a push notification unless there is something you need to know.
ALABAMA AND AUBURN A-DAY GAME FORECASTS… Many folks from our area are headed north this weekend to Auburn and Tuscaloosa for A-Day festivities. The detailed forecast for each game is below. While there could be showers and thunderstorms around, the severe weather issues should hold off until after 7PM on Saturday. If you’re driving southbound toward south Alabama or northwest Florida from Auburn or Tuscaloosa on Saturday evening, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest severe weather info.
ALABAMA A-DAY FORECAST… Alabama kicks off the A-Day spring game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa at 1PM CDT. Kickoff temperatures will be around 76° with a 50-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms around. Have a way to check the radar if you’re headed to Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Rain chances have been bumped up slightly as it looks like more moisture will be in place to support a few showers and storms.
AUBURN A-DAY FORECAST… Auburn will begin the A-Day spring game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn at 3PM CDT. Mostly cloudy skies are likely with kickoff temperatures around 80°. There is only a 10% chance of rain and even that may be a stretch. No rain issues are expected in Auburn.
APP… Be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded, check out the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the “Alert Settings” button to choose the alerts you’d like to get straight from me.
My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Friday. See you in the morning!