SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATER TODAY…
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) ENHANCED SEVERE RISK… Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will be possible this evening. There could be a few significant (EF2+) tornadoes involved with any discrete supercells that form out ahead of the main squall line (QLCS) of storms that moves by later this evening. 4PM to 4AM remains the 12 hour window for severe storms in south Alabama and northwest Florida with a core risk happening from 8PM to midnight. Regardless of if our area is upgraded later today into a Level 4 risk area, a Level 3 enhanced risk is a BIG deal. SPC tornado probabilities for today are 10x, aka *10 times the risk of experiencing a tornado within 25 miles of a given point on a normal weather day.* Do me a favor and tag someone that isn’t as “weather aware” as you to help me get the word out about this big risk. We need as many folks to be aware as is possible. I will be here with tornado warning coverage as needed later today. Join me if/when we have warnings! That’s the summary, here are all of the details…
LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE FOR THURSDAY… ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone on Thursday, including the following areas: Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Leroy, Fruitdale, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Mobile, Axis, Prichard, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Saraland, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Stockton, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Jay, Berrydale, Milton, Niceville, Crestview, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Navarre, Allentown, Chumuckla, Red Level, Greenville, and Georgiana. Areas just to our north and east are also included in this Level 3 risk zone: Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Geneva, Troy, Selma, Demopolis, Prattville, Livingston, Camden, Hayneville, and Butler.
TIMING FOR RAIN AND STORMS… Timing has been quite a tricky issue with this particular weather system and we have had to adjust this yet again due to differences in the short-term weather models. 4PM to 4AM is the main 12 hour window for severe weather, with the core risk being from 8PM to midnight. Rain/showers could happen this afternoon, but much of the rain will hold off till later tonight. Again, it can’t be stressed enough: Please have multiple ways to receive tornado warnings later today and when you get a warning, take action to protect yourself.
SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING… While I am not expecting severe weather across Alabama or northwest Florida this morning, our eyes will be trained to the west across Mississippi and Louisiana as this weather system sets up. Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible in those states as well. This means if you’re traveling through those areas, you must have a way to get the warnings and check the radar!
TORNADO WARNING COVERAGE… redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines our specific tornado warning commitment to southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Any time there is an active tornado warning polygon for Covington, Conecuh, Butler, Escambia (AL), Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, we provide uninterrupted tornado warning coverage in the RZW app and on Facebook Live.
COUNTIES ON THE FRINGE… I regularly get messages from people in neighboring counties that are not in our primary coverage area that want to be involved in our nonstop video coverage. I know we have more than a few viewers in Choctaw, Wilcox, Crenshaw, Geneva, Coffee, Pike, and Walton counties as well, but those counties remain out of our primary coverage area as of now. We hope to change this with sponsor support from those specific counties so we can get them added to our coverage zone soon. It is certainly not that we don’t care about these areas (we do!) but we have to keep our area in focus with our business as well.
GET THE APP BEFORE THE BAD WEATHER… I know I have beat this into the ground with every, single post, but I want YOU to make sure you have the RedZone Weather app downloaded this morning BEFORE we have storms later today. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of app) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to pick the specific alerts you want to get straight from me.
MUCH COOLER FRIDAY… After the severe weather risk on Thursday, we could have rain showers Friday morning that linger into the afternoon hours. Most spots should be dry by Friday evening as cooler, dry, stable air continues to filter in from the northwest. Temperatures on Friday will be borderline chilly with high temperatures struggling to reach the upper-60s.
WONDERFUL EASTER WEEKEND UPCOMING… It doesn’t get much better for a late April weekend in the Deep South. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-70s on both Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the upper-40s. We will have full sunshine each day. It will be a bit chilly (temperatures around 45°) for Easter sunrise services across the region, but the good news is no rain is expected. If you’re having an Easter egg hunt or another outdoor activity this weekend, the forecast looks fantastic!
NICE WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK… Monday and Tuesday of the upcoming week look nice, dry, and quite warm. High temperatures will reach the mid-80s each day with morning lows near 60°. We are increasingly having more 80 degree days as of late. It looks like the chance of a late season freeze are now near zero for most spots. Very early model data suggests our next “weathermaker” will move through around Thursday of next week. Far too early to know whether severe weather will be an issue, but obviously it’s the heart of severe weather season around here. Something to watch. We’ll keep you posted.
See all the details, including a graphical look at the next 7 days and in-depth coverage of the evening severe weather potential, in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy your day, stay safe, and check back with me in the RedZone Weather app for updates.