MIDDAY UPDATE: SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO START THIS EVENING… Strong tornadoes and damaging winds remain the headline concerns on this Thursday afternoon as we look ahead into the evening hours into the very early morning hours of Friday. The event is just getting underway back over Louisiana with multiple severe thunderstorms having already fired up. We will monitor radar trends over the next few hours to see if/when supercell storms can form out ahead of the main cluster of storms. A few changes…
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY INCREASES… One item that HAS changed over the last few minutes is the damaging wind probability zones. The Storm Prediction Center has upped a big chunk of southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi into their “45% probability zone of seeing a damage report within 25 miles of a given point” zone. It’s very technical, but these are the specific components that comprise the convective outlooks and “the why” of which areas are included in which specific convective outlook category (Level 3, etc.) Bascially, the big takeaway for you is that we will need to closely monitor the squall line that moves through tonight as there could be multiple areas of damaging straight line winds involved.
TORNADO RISK REMAINS ELEVATED… The Storm Prediction Center continues to indicate that significant (EF2+) tornadoes will be possible this evening into early Friday morning across much of Alabama, northwest Florida, southeast Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana. There is nothing on radar out ahead of the main batch of storms right now, but anything that does develop could potentially turn into a supercell thunderstorm capable of producing a significant tornado. HAVE A WAY TO GET THE WARNINGS, especially if you’re going to be asleep. You need something that will wake you up. More importantly, when you get a warning for your specific area, take action to protect yourself.
NEXT LONG FORM UPDATE BY 7PM… IF tornado warnings are not required before then, my next long form update will be posted by 7PM. If tornado warnings are required before then for our local area, I’ll be live across our platforms. Plenty more updates this afternoon and before 7PM will be available in the RedZone Weather app.
The following info from the morning video discussion has not changed and remains on point…
LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE FOR THURSDAY… ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone on Thursday, including the following areas: Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Leroy, Fruitdale, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Mobile, Axis, Prichard, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Saraland, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Stockton, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Jay, Berrydale, Milton, Niceville, Crestview, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Navarre, Allentown, Chumuckla, Red Level, Greenville, and Georgiana. Areas just to our north and east are also included in this Level 3 risk zone: Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Geneva, Troy, Selma, Demopolis, Prattville, Livingston, Camden, Hayneville, and Butler.
TIMING FOR RAIN AND STORMS… Timing has been quite a tricky issue with this particular weather system and we have had to adjust this yet again due to differences in the short-term weather models. 4PM to 4AM is the main 12 hour window for severe weather, with the core risk being from 8PM to midnight. Rain/showers could happen this afternoon, but much of the rain will hold off till later tonight. Again, it can’t be stressed enough: Please have multiple ways to receive tornado warnings later today and when you get a warning, take action to protect yourself.
TORNADO WARNING COVERAGE… redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines our specific tornado warning commitment to southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Any time there is an active tornado warning polygon for Covington, Conecuh, Butler, Escambia (AL), Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, we provide uninterrupted tornado warning coverage in the RZW app and on Facebook Live.
COUNTIES ON THE FRINGE… I regularly get messages from people in neighboring counties that are not in our primary coverage area that want to be involved in our nonstop video coverage. I know we have more than a few viewers in Choctaw, Wilcox, Crenshaw, Geneva, Coffee, Pike, and Walton counties as well, but those counties remain out of our primary coverage area as of now. We hope to change this with sponsor support from those specific counties so we can get them added to our coverage zone soon. It is certainly not that we don’t care about these areas (we do!) but we have to keep our area in focus with our business as well.
SET UP APP ALERTS!!… I know I have beat this into the ground with every, single post, but I want YOU to make sure you have the RedZone Weather app downloaded this morning BEFORE we have storms later today. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of app) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to pick the specific alerts you want to get straight from me.