SEVERE WEATHER RISK INCREASES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY… The risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts has increased across south Alabama and northwest Florida valid for Thursday in the afternoon and evening hours. The latest Storm Prediction Center convective outlook (as of 1PM CDT) has upgraded much of our region into their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone. This means that isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be possible. This event has consistently included our area in the Level 1 zone but the risk has been increased slightly per the latest update. While the risk is slightly higher, the overall forecast has not changed that much. Rain and thunderstorms will become likely after lunch on Thursday as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. Some of the storms could be on the strong to severe side, capable of producing a few, brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Storms will clear out early Friday morning and rain could linger into Friday afternoon.
LEVEL 2 RISK: WHO IS INVOLVED… Vast majority of the local area is included in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. If you’re in any of the following communities or surrounding areas, you’re included: Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Brewton, Monroeville, Grove Hill, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Leroy, Jackson, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, Wagerville, McIntosh, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Fairhope, Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Molino, Gonzalez, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Bratt, Jay, Berrydale, Munson, Crestview, Milton, Navarre, Niceville, Fort Walton Beach, Laurel Hill, Florala, Pleasant Home, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, and Brooklyn.
LOWER-END, LEVEL 1 RISK… We note that the northeastern swath of our area remains involved in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. This includes areas in/near Thomasville, Beatrice, Greenville, Georgiana, Oaky Streak, Halso Mill, McKenzie, Red Level, River Falls, Andalusia, Heath, Straughn, Rose Hill, and Opp.
Much of west-central Alabama and southeast Alabama are also now involved in the Level 1 risk zone, including Demopolis, Selma, Camden, Butler, Livingston, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Luverne, Daleville, and Abbeville.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be the two main concerns as storms move by Thursday afternoon, evening, and into the very early morning hours of Friday. Rain amounts should add up to 1-2” in total for most spots across our region, thus likely mitigating the flash flooding risk.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… This has changed a bit since this morning. 2PM Thursday to 2AM Friday is the 12 hour window in which severe weather may happen across our region. 5PM to 11PM seems to be the 6 hour window with the greatest potential when tornadoes may happen. Have a way to get the warnings on Thursday!
TORNADO WARNING COVERAGE… redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines our specific tornado warning commitment to southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Any time there is an active tornado warning polygon for Covington, Conecuh, Butler, Escambia (AL), Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, we provide uninterrupted tornado warning coverage in the RZW app and on Facebook Live.
GET THE APP & SET UP ALERTS… I know I have beat this into the ground with every, single post, but I want YOU to make sure you have the RedZone Weather app downloaded this morning BEFORE we have inclement weather. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of app) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to pick the specific alerts you want to get straight from me.
Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great Wednesday evening!