TROPICS HEATING UP; 40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is an increasing chance that a tropical storm will form east of the Lesser Antilles in the tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean this weekend. NHC indicates there is now a 40% chance of a tropical storm forming between Friday and Monday just east of the Leeward Islands southeast of Puerto Rico. This is a totally separate, distinct system than the tropical wave that will approach the Atlantic coast of Florida over the next few days. It is important to note that there is no IMMINENT tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico and no U.S. impacts are currently expected. Some scenarios could potentially lead to impacts in a week or so, but it is too early to speculate about that. Details will come into focus over the next week. Plenty to discuss in the tropics this evening. Let’s talk details…
40% CHANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING… In addition to the 40% chance of development that the National Hurricane Center indicates for the tropical wave west of Africa, major global weather models show this system probably developing into a tropical storm and moving near or just north of Puerto Rico. It is far too early to speculate where this system will end up. Interests in The Bahamas and Florida should closely monitor the progress of this developing system.
INVEST 95L PROBABLY WON’T DEVELOP… Now, let’s talk about the good news. The tropical wave we’ve been tracking that has been producing heavy rain over Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic remains weak and disorganized. This tropical wave was branded as INVEST 95L because it had a formidable chance at becoming a tropical storm east of the Florida Peninsula over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later this week into this weekend. NHC says there is a 0-10% chance of development at this point, meaning there is a very high likelihood that the system WON’T develop into a tropical storm. This is good news for The Bahamas and for the Florida Peninsula.
NO MAJOR MODELS SHOW 95L DEVELOPING… One of the main reasons the development probabilities for INVEST 95L are so low is because upper-level winds remain unfavorable for a tropical storm. We note that all of the major global models, including the American-based GFS, and the European-based ECMWF models, show no development with this system. It’s a different story for the tropical wave just to the west of Africa, however.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already downloaded the free RedZone Weather app, redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me. I’ll keep you updated about the tropics over the next few days.
I’ll have your next full forecast video on Wednesday posted by 7:15AM. See you then!