DORIAN MOVING TOWARD PUERTO RICO; STORMS TODAY LOCALLY; DRIER THURSDAY… Confidence is growing that Tropical Storm Dorian will affect parts of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, although confidence of just how strong or how weak the system will be at that point remains very low. It’s still too early to say conclusively whether Dorian will cause Gulf Coast impacts, but I am encouraged by the trends in model data that point to this system remaining to the east of our local area. Locally, we’ve got another round of showers and thunderstorms set to happen today before drier air moves in for Thursday. I expect full sunshine on Thursday before rain chances rise for the weekend.
MORE STORMS TODAY; DRIER ON THURSDAY… Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Severe weather is not expected today, but storms will produce heavy downpours of rain, lots of lightning, and gusty winds. Storms will be most numerous today between 11AM and 7PM. The good news is we get a break from our normal pop-up storms on Thursday as a frontal boundary sags to the south of our area. Drier air will be in place throughout the day on Thursday and I expect fully sunny skies!
ISOLATED STORMS ON FRIDAY… Afternoon and evening storms will develop again on Friday. Storms will be isolated in nature and rain chances will remain low (not zero!) in the 20-30% chance range. High temperatures on Friday will be in the mid-90s.
DORIAN TO IMPACT PUERTO RICO TODAY; STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE THURSDAY… Tropical Storm Dorian will likely cross or skirt by Puerto Rico today as a moderate tropical storm with maximum winds in the 50-60mph range. The system is poised to emerge over the southwestern Atlantic late tonight. The latest model trends point to the potential for a strengthening system as we go into Thursday and Friday. Dorian will be in an environment that features less atmospheric shear and higher sea surface temperatures, which both could be contributing factors to strengthening.
DORIAN: WEDNESDAY MORNING LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION… Our local impacts discussion has not changed since last evening. This information remains right on target this morning. Several models, including the ECMWF/Euro model, show the potential for Dorian crossing the Florida Peninsula this weekend and entering the northeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. That is NOT a certainty at this point, but it is an idea on the table. The American-based Global Forecast System model (GFS) shows Dorian meandering near the Florida Atlantic coast before making a landfall near Savannah, Georgia early next week. The Canadian model shows a mixture (of sorts) between these ideas, with the center crossing the Florida Atlantic coast between the Space Coast and Jacksonville before Dorian completely fizzles out to the east of our local area. We simply do not know whether Dorian will affect south Alabama or northwest Florida just yet. I would encourage everyone reading this to check back with me multiple times daily over the next several days for the latest information. I hope we’re able to get more information that will completely rule out local impacts, but that has not been the trend so far today. We’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
DORIAN: TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH; INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LOW… This feels like an all too common scenario. We know, with fairly high confidence, where Dorian is headed over the next 5 days. There is some variability as we go into the weekend about exactly where Dorian ends up. Dorian will move between an area of high pressure to the east and an upper-level low pressure area to the west. It’s riding the weakness in between these two atmospheric features. What we do not have a grip on at this point is how strong or how weak Dorian will be in the coming days. Dorian could be a high-end category 2 hurricane or a low-end tropical storm. The dynamical models have consistently painted a picture showing a weaker solution while the intensity models have suggested a more powerful system.
HURRICANE WATCH & TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO… The entirety of Puerto Rico is under a Hurricane Watch AND a Tropical Storm Warning as Dorian approaches. The same holds true for the U.S. Virgin Islands and parts of the Dominican Republic. A Hurricane Watch will probably be needed for parts of the Turks & Caicos islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday. A Tropical Storm Watch or Hurricane Watch will probably be needed for parts of the east coast of Florida on Friday.
TROPICAL STORM ERIN… Tropical Depression Six became Tropical Storm Erin last evening at 10PM. Erin is located about halfway between Bermuda and the Carolina coastline in the Atlantic Ocean. The system could strengthen ever so slightly in the days ahead. There is a chance that Erin could make landfall in Canada in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Significant direct local impacts in Alabama or Florida are not expected.
Here is some review information from yesterday. Our football forecasts remain on target…
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football will be in full swing this Friday at 7PM across south Alabama and northwest Florida. There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms around (20-30% chance of rain from 6PM to 9PM on Friday) but I expect vast majority of the games across our region to be dry. Temperatures at 7PM will be around 84°, falling to 78° by 9PM.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECAST… Long-time viewers and readers know that I try to provide football forecasts each week since we have so many people in our local area that like college football. I truly am just about as close to neutral as you can get when it comes to football loyalty around here… I grew up as an Auburn fan, but the price was right at The University of Alabama, so now I truly do love both schools. We’ll try to sneak in some football football forecasts when we can. See the first one below.
ALABAMA VS. DUKE IN ATLANTA… The Alabama Crimson Tide will battle the Duke Blue Devils inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia this Saturday at 2:30PM CDT. High temperatures in Atlanta around kickoff time will be around 91° with partly cloudy skies in place. Low (10-20%) rain chances mean it should be a nice, hot day for folks headed to the game.
AUBURN VS. OREGON IN DALLAS… The Auburn Tigers kick off against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday at 6:30PM CDT with a primetime slot on local ABC stations. The game will be inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (Dallas). Low (10-20%) rain chances with kickoff temperatures near 87° are expected.
TROY VS. CAMPBELL IN TROY… Troy kicks off its football season at home against Campbell on Saturday at 5PM CDT. You can watch the game online on ESPN+. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be around in the afternoon and evening hours, but there is a good chance that game time will be dry. 30-40% chance of rain in Troy with high temperatures on Saturday near 91°. Plenty of humidity in place! Kickoff temperatures will be around 86°.
SOUTH ALABAMA AT NEBRASKA IN LINCOLN… The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers. The game kicks off at 11AM CDT Saturday on ESPN. There will be scattered showers around during that timeframe in Lincoln. We’ll call it a 30-40% chance of rain with game time temperatures near 70°.
APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the graphics, details, and latest on Dorian in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!
