RZW Exec partners, good evening! It’s been quite some time since our local area has had any formal severe weather risk. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a low-end, marginal, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone that includes much of our area valid for tomorrow (Tuesday, October 15). This means that most spots will not have any severe weather issues, but a rogue severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. The overall tornado risk with this system will remain quite low, but not exactly zero for our inland communities. This will be a beneficial rainmaker for much of our area. Let’s look at details…
HEAVY RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON TUESDAY… The big headline for this weather system remains: RAIN! Beneficial, drought relief rain. Most spots will have some rain on Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times, especially across the northern fringe of our local area. There is a low-end risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two in the stronger storms. Again, for most spots, this is a beneficial rain event. The overall chance of severe weather for any given spot remains low.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK… It has been several weeks since we have had any type of significant severe weather episode. For those of you that may be new to RedZone Weather, we rely heavily on the standard Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks that are issued multiple times daily when there is a severe weather potential. “TORcon” and other proprietary tornado index values are used by some companies, but around here, we use the industry-standard convective outlook issued by SPC. For Tuesday, October 15, our local area is included in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. This means that a few isolated stronger or marginally severe thunderstorms may happen, but the overall severe weather risk remains low.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS ON TUESDAY… Heavy rain that could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding will be the main concern on Tuesday. In addition, there is a low-end chance that some of the stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado or two. There are several factors working against the potential tornado risk on Tuesday, including (but not limited to) lack of instability once storms “work over” the atmosphere and low lapse rates. As always, if we happen to have any tornado warnings in our primary coverage area, we will provide uninterrupted live video coverage on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app in the Live tab.
INLAND COMMUNITIES HAVE LOW-END RISK OF STRONGER STORMS… Pretty much all of us minus the immediate beach zones have the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place for Tuesday. Areas north of Interstate 10 in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties are involved in the low-end risk zone. This means that ALL of Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, and Choctaw counties are included as well. We note that parts of central and southeast Alabama are also included in the Level 1 risk zone, including Montgomery, Auburn, Selma, Demopolis, Camden, Enterprise, Dothan, Troy, Geneva, and Eufaula.
RAIN & STORM TIMING… While heavy rain could happen at any time on Tuesday, the focus for the stronger to severe storms will happen mainly between Noon and 6PM. This is because storms will have more instability to work with in that time period compared to the late evening and early morning hours.
NEXT UPDATE… Since widespread severe weather is not expected, this will be the only RZW Exec alert you receive for this particular event. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support-related concerns or questions. I am a text or phone call away. My public updates will continue in the RedZone Weather app this evening, tonight, and on Tuesday as needed.
Have a great Monday evening!