HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY; ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE… Drought relief in the form of a good, soaking rain will happen across many spots locally today, especially across inland areas of south Alabama. Not everyone will have rain before the end of the day, but most spots will have at least some rain. Widespread severe weather remains unlikely, but there is a chance of a few stronger storms at times. The tornado risk today remains LOW, but not entirely zero. High temperatures will range from the mid-70s near Greenville, Beatrice, and Thomasville to the mid-80s near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. A strong cold front is on the way for Wednesday that will usher in much cooler air for Thursday. We’re also looking ahead to the weekend when more rain is likely. Let’s talk details…
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY… Heavy rain that could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding will be the main concern on Tuesday. In addition, there is a low-end chance that some of the stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado or two. There are several factors working against the potential tornado risk on Tuesday, including (but not limited to) lack of instability once storms “work over” the atmosphere and low lapse rates. As always, if we happen to have any tornado warnings in our primary coverage area, we will provide uninterrupted live video coverage on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app in the Live tab.
STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY INLAND… Pretty much all of us minus the immediate beach zones have the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place for Tuesday. Areas north of Interstate 10 in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties are involved in the low-end risk zone. This means that ALL of Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, and Choctaw counties are included as well. We note that parts of central and southeast Alabama are also included in the Level 1 risk zone, including Montgomery, Auburn, Selma, Demopolis, Camden, Enterprise, Dothan, Troy, Geneva, and Eufaula.
TIMING OF RAIN & STORMS… While heavy rain could happen at any time on Tuesday, the focus for the stronger to severe storms will happen mainly between Noon and 6PM. This is because storms will have more instability to work with in that time period compared to the late evening and early morning hours.
COOLER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY… The rain and storms we’ll have today and tonight are due in part to a cold front that is moving toward our area from the northwest. This cold front will usher in cooler, drier air starting on Wednesday morning.
NICE & COOL ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid-70s (not a typo! mid-70s!!) with a cool, northwesterly breeze. Plenty of sunshine is likely on Thursday. Overnight lows Thursday and Friday mornings will be in the low-50s! Temperatures will moderate somewhat on Friday into the mid-80s for afternoon highs.
MORE RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… More drought relief in the form of rain will become possible this weekend as an increasingly unsettled weather pattern sets in. We have at least some chance of rain Saturday, Sunday, into Monday. High temperatures will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR YUCATAN… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to suggest there is a low-end (20%) chance of tropical storm formation near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in the next 3 days. Formation of a tropical storm is most likely to happen in the Bay of Campeche (far southern Gulf of Mexico) IF any formal development happens.
TD15/NESTOR IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… NHC started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 15 on Monday evening. TD15 will probably become Tropical Storm Nestor in the days ahead as it moves northeast over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. This system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Cabo Verde Islands near the African continent. The system will move northwest and dissipate in about 5 days. No direct U.S. impacts are expected.
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See all the graphics and details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!