CRISTOBAL TO MOVE NORTH THIS WEEKEND; RAIN LIKELY LOCALLY… Here is the latest projected path for Tropical Storm Cristobal from the National Hurricane Center as of 4PM on Tuesday, June 2. Cristobal is set to “sit and spin” in the Bay of Campeche over the next 3 days before jogging quickly to the north toward the northern Gulf Coast this weekend. At this moment, the forecast remains on track with increased rain chances being the main potential impact for our local area Sunday into Monday. High waves and dangerous rip currents will be a concern at our local beaches. While it is too early to definitively say where Tropical Storm Cristobal will ultimately make landfall, the latest deterministic model guidance points to a landfall point somewhere between Port O’Connor, Texas and Biloxi, Mississippi. Keep in mind that impacts will extend well away from the landfall point. This puts the state of Louisiana straight in the projected path for this system, meaning that is the area where most of the impacts will happen IF this scenario verifies. Further forecast refinements will be possible over the next few days and IF model guidance shifts farther east, obviously our area would have more in the way of potential impacts (perhaps including a few spin-up tornadoes and higher wind gusts). We certainly are not “out of the woods” just yet.
SHOULD I CANCEL MY VACATION PLANS? I have had a plethora of questions like this today, most of which are from folks planning to travel to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this weekend into early next week. My answer to this question remains: If I had plans to go to our beaches this weekend into early next week, I would currently keep my plans. I would not cancel as of now as I personally don’t mind increased rain chances at the beaches. If you’re looking for full days of sunshine at our local beaches, those are pretty hard to come by this time of year due to the pop-up thunderstorms that are going to happen each day. If you can wait to make a decision on your beach vacation, that is what I would do. We will have a better grip of potential local impacts tomorrow evening and into Thursday. If you know someone planning to vacation/travel with concerns, tag them below and tell them about this specific paragraph please.
WHAT IS DRIVING CRISTOBAL RIGHT NOW… This tropical system is not moving much at all. As noted by the National Hurricane Center in their technical discussion, the system is currently trapped between two high pressure areas. This trapping mechanism will be in place for the next 48-72 hours. By Friday, Cristobal will begin to move north across the Gulf of Mexico in response to higher winds from the south. It should be noted that forecast confidence in 4 to 5 days remains fairly low as there are plenty of questions as to what will happen when/if Cristobal interacts with the land area of Mexico later this week. There is at least some chance that the terrain weakens the system. Even in that scenario, however, there is a chance the system redevelops farther north and moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Lots of question marks. We’ll keep you posted as we know more in the days ahead.
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Have a nice Tuesday evening!