TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TO APPROACH NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY… Tropical Storm Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. The latest projected path from the National Hurricane Center shows the center of Cristobal approaching Louisiana on Sunday. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be possible, including heavy rain and flash flooding, rip currents and high waves at the beaches, and perhaps even tornadoes near the immediate coast. Potential impacts will come into better focus over the next few days once we have a higher confidence on where the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal will likely end up. Today, we have a round of pop-up showers and thunderstorms ahead for our local area. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected but some of the storms may produce loud thunder and torrential downpours of rain. This will be the story over the next few days with numerous showers and storms expected each day. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pop up today across the region with heavy rain being possible at times. If you’re traveling today, be aware that these “splash and dash-type” thunderstorms can produce blinding heavy rain in very localized areas. Cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest of the storms. The tornado risk today is at or near zero. Storms will fade away after 8PM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… We will begin to get more moisture flinging in from the south as we go into the latter half of the week and certainly into the weekend as Tropical Storm Cristobal approaches from the south. Increased precipitable water values will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to form each day. High temperatures will consistently be in the mid-80s through Saturday.
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL CURRENTLY IN BAY OF CAMPECHE… Cristobal had 60mph winds as of 1AM, but weakening is expected later today as the center of the storm interacts with the terrain of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. There is a chance Cristobal weakens to tropical depression status tonight or perhaps early on Thursday. Movement of the storm right now is to the southeast at 2 (yes, 2) miles per hour. This means the storm is essentially stationary, producing heavy rain over the same areas. Devastating mudslides are possible across parts of central America due to Cristobal into tonight and Thursday.
UPDATED NOTE ABOUT CANCELLING VACATION PLANS… I had a slew of questions yesterday about cancelling trips to the beach and vacation plans for this weekend into early next week. While we don’t know for sure just yet where the center of Cristobal will end up, confidence is now high that we will have a soaking rain at our local beach communities from Saturday evening, through Sunday, and into Monday. I would not be surprised if the waters at the local beaches in Alabama and northwest Florida are closed to the public with double red flags flying by Sunday as dangerous rip currents will be numerous with very high waves involved regardless of where the center of Cristobal comes onshore next week. We may have to assess a risk of brief, spin-up tornadoes near the coast as well, depending on the future exact track of Cristobal. Everyone has a different tolerance as to what you’re willing to deal with in the world of weather, thus I can’t really give specific recommendations. I can tell you that impacts at local beaches are increasingly likely, especially concerning heavy rain.
CRISTOBAL – PROJECTED PATH… Tropical Storm Cristobal is not moving much at all on this Wednesday. As noted by the National Hurricane Center in their technical discussion, the system is currently trapped between two high pressure areas. This trapping mechanism will be in place for the next 24-48 hours. By Friday, Cristobal will begin to move north across the Gulf of Mexico in response to higher winds from the south. The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast (most likely Louisiana, if the current forecast verifies) by Sunday. There is a chance Cristobal will be a strong tropical storm by that point with maximum winds near 65-70 mph.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH LIKELY TO BE ISSUED… A Tropical Storm Watch will become necessary for parts of Louisiana tomorrow or Friday. We will get in more model guidance today that should firm up the idea of where the center of Cristobal will ultimately end up.
APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!