POP-UP STORMS TODAY; CRISTOBAL TO BRING HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Cristobal remains a tropical depression over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this morning. The system is expected to begin moving north today and emerge over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Saturday. The system will bring in multiple rounds of heavy rain and storms on Sunday into Monday across our local area. Today, we’ve got a classic summer round of pop-up showers and thunderstorms on tap across our region. High temperatures will be around the 90 degree mark. More rain is expected at times on Saturday. Even after Cristobal departs early next week, rain chances will remain quite high into the middle part of the upcoming week. Let’s look at your forecast details.
STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY… Just like yesterday, showers and thunderstorms are likely across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Friday. Widespread severe weather won’t happen today, but there could be a few stronger storms capable of producing very heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning.
P.M. POP-UP STORMS ON SATURDAY… Tomorrow will be similar to today but with a slightly increased coverage of storms by the middle part of the afternoon. We will begin to monitor radar trends Saturday evening to see how soon the first rain bands from Cristobal will arrive. There could be a large complex of rain and storms moving in late Saturday or early Sunday as a fire hose of Gulf moisture begins across our region.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY… Sunday into Monday is when we have the potential for quite a bit of rainfall, especially in coastal counties. This is a good thing, as this rain will help to alleviate or potentially eliminate ongoing drought conditions near the local beaches. There is a good chance that much of the day on Sunday and much of Monday may be wet with numerous showers and storms around.
CRISTOBAL: POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… While the core of Tropical Storm Cristobal will likely pass well to our west across portions of Louisiana, there will be at least limited local impacts due to this tropical storm across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The main concern will be heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding. See the potential impacts discussion below.
RAIN & FLASH FLOODING… Greater rain amounts are expected closer to the coast, where 5 to 6 inches of rain is not out of the question. Inland rain amounts will likely be in the 2 to 3 inch range. Flash flooding will quickly become a concern if storms start training over the same areas, which is a possibility.
TORNADO RISK… The overall tornado risk appears to be low or perhaps even very low across south Alabama and northwest Florida. If any storms can ramp up and become stronger closer to the coast, isolated tornadoes may become more of an issue for beach zones. The overall tornado risk will also be higher to our west closer to the center of Cristobal.
GUSTY WINDS… 20-30 mph winds are expected near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Breezy conditions are likely inland. Overall, the risk of high winds remains very low across the region. Widespread wind damage is not expected.
RIP CURRENTS/WAVES… No doubt that red flags will be flying this weekend at many, if not all the local beaches. Rip currents will be numerous and waves will be large. Please stay out of the water if you’re visiting a local beach as the high waves will be dangerous at times.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have updates as needed in the RedZone Weather app today and in the days ahead. If tornado warnings become required due to the outer rain bands of Cristobal, we will provide uninterrupted live video coverage per our usual policy.
See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Have a great weekend!