3 SYSTEMS TO WATCH IN THE TROPICS THIS EVENING… The tropics have come alive over the last 24 hours with three distinct areas to monitor over the next few days. Let me be clear in stating that at this point, none of these tropical systems will likely ever directly affect south Alabama or northwest Florida. There is a good chance our local beaches will have higher wave action later this week and into the upcoming weekend due to the tropical wave that will pass to our south (perhaps in the form of a developing tropical storm) but no other, significant impacts are expected locally outside of that. Outside of the tropics, we’re expecting a seasonal July weather pattern to continue over the next few days with scattered pop-up P.M. storms and plenty of heat and humidity. Let’s look at a few details this evening.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HOUSTON, TEXAS… There is a very low-end chance that a tropical storm may briefly develop near the Texas coast tonight or on Tuesday. There is a weak area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico just southeast of the Houston, Texas metro area. This system continues to bring in quite a bit of Gulf moisture in Louisiana and Texas. Rain chances will remain high to our west over the next few days, not only because of this first area of low pressure but also because of the tropical wave moving in that same direction later this week into the weekend (more info on that in the next paragraph). Localized flash flooding in parts of Louisiana and Texas will be the main concerns, regardless of if this system briefly takes a name as a tropical storm. Bottom line for us: Rainmaker for Texas and Louisiana with no direct impacts expected in Alabama or Florida.
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR CENTRAL CUBA… This is the system that has the greatest chance of becoming a tropical storm this week or perhaps this weekend as it moves west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, a tropical wave is situated from the southern Bahamas to the central part of Cuba. The environment over the tropical wave is hostile at the moment. Upper-level winds may become a bit more favorable for development into a tropical storm once this system reaches the southern or central part of the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models have consistently suggested this system will move toward Texas or far western parts of Louisiana later this week and into the weekend. This means that local impacts in our area would be limited to beach impacts (high waves and rip currents).
SEPARATE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN… We’re also now monitoring a tropical wave in the middle part of the Atlantic Ocean that will have a brief window for tropical storm formation later this week. From NHC: “Shower activity has changed little in association with a weak area of low pressure, and its associated tropical wave, located roughly midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Late this week, however, less favorable conditions should limit additional development.”
NEXT VIDEO TOMORROW MORNING… I will have a full, detailed tropical update posted by 7:15AM in my next forecast video. We’ll dedicate a bit more time in the video to each tropical system. Be sure to tune in for that!
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a nice Monday evening!