RZW EXEC: FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, the risk of a few tornadoes has increased for Monday across south Alabama and northwest Florida, especially in areas closer to the coast. OVERALL, I expect local impacts to be pretty limited. I have outlined the overall risk in each local county, in detail, for our early evening update. Wind impacts really won’t be much of an issue locally due to Marco. We could have some limited flash flooding issues and maybe a few, brief tornadoes. That is the summary, below is an extensive post about all of this that breaks everything down by specific counties. As always, please let me know if you have any questions! My cell phone number for those that may not have it is (251) 363-8833. I am bad about not checking emails when we have severe weather issues like this, but I do a lot better with text messages. Shoot me a text if you have decision support needs. Thank you & stay safe!
LONG POST: TORNADOES POSSIBLE MONDAY DUE TO HURRICANE MARCO… You’ll find a detailed assessment below as to what to expect in each of our local counties due to Hurricane Marco, which will likely make a Louisiana landfall as a hurricane some time on Monday. Local impacts from Marco could extend into Monday night, especially near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Since the core of Marco will likely move southwest of us, impacts locally will be limited to isolated tornadoes, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, and beach hazards (gusty winds of 25-35 mph at the immediate coast, high waves, rip currents, minor storm surge, and minor coastal flooding). Our region will be on the more volatile east side of the system and with the high shear environment over Marco, there is a good chance we will have quite a bit of rain streaming into our region on Monday.
TIMING – POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES LOCALLY… Isolated tornadoes will be possible across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida from 7AM Monday to 1AM Tuesday. That is the 18 hour window when a few, brief tornadoes may happen locally as the core of Marco passes to our southwest. We encourage everyone to have a way to receive urgent tornado warnings on Monday into Monday night. You need something like a NOAA Weather Radio or smartphone app that is designed to wake you up. It is a good idea to visit your smartphone’s notification settings and make sure Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) are turned ON.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) TORNADO RISK… The Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 2 (out of 5) tornado risk starting at 7AM on Monday for parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, coastal Mississippi, and much of eastern Louisiana, including greater New Orleans. These are the zones where brief tornadoes will be most likely to happen Monday into Monday night. Instead of listing each community in the risk zones (that are meant to be more generalized guidelines), see specific impacts for each county below.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) TORNADO RISK… Surrounding the Level 2 risk, there is a Level 1 (out of 5), lower-end tornado risk that includes parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Mobile, and Baldwin counties. Instead of listing each community in the risk zones (that are meant to be more generalized guidelines), see specific impacts for each county below.
MOBILE COUNTY, AL… All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Dauphin Island and along the western shore of Mobile Bay. 25-35 mph wind gusts are expected. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Beach hazards are likely, including minor storm surge, minor coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay.
BALDWIN COUNTY, AL… All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, and Fort Morgan. 25-35 mph wind gusts are expected. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Beach hazards are likely, including minor storm surge, minor coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, FL… All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Perdido Key, Fort Pickens, NAS Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, and Pensacola Beach. 25-35 mph wind gusts will be possible. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Beach hazards are likely, including minor storm surge, minor coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid.
SANTA ROSA COUNTY, FL… All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Gulf Breeze and Navarre. 20-30 mph wind gusts will be possible. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Beach hazards are likely, including minor storm surge, minor coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown.
OKALOOSA COUNTY, FL… All potential impacts will likely be more pronounced at the immediate coastline near Gulf Breeze and Navarre. 15-25 mph wind gusts will be possible. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Beach hazards are likely, including minor storm surge, minor coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.
Locations: Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill.
WASHINGTON COUNTY, AL… Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Breezy (10-25 mph wind gusts) conditions may become possible Monday evening. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening.
Locations: Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, Malcolm.
CLARKE COUNTY, AL… Limited to no major impacts. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Breezy (10-25 mph wind gusts) conditions may become possible Monday evening. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening.
Locations: Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs.
MONROE COUNTY, AL… Limited to no major impacts. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Breezy (10-20 mph wind gusts) conditions may become possible Monday evening. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening.
Locations: Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, AL… Limited to no major impacts. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Breezy (10-20 mph wind gusts) conditions may become possible Monday evening. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening.
Locations: Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall.
CONECUH COUNTY, AL… No major impacts are expected. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night, but the risk is greater in counties to the southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Breezy (10-20 mph wind gusts) conditions may become possible Monday evening. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain will be possible at times Monday into Monday night.
Locations: Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville.
COVINGTON COUNTY, AL… No major impacts are expected. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night, but the risk is greater in counties to the southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Breezy (10-20 mph wind gusts) conditions may become possible Monday evening. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain will be possible at times Monday into Monday night.
Locations: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, Fairfield.
BUTLER COUNTY, AL… No major impacts are expected. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday into Monday night, but the risk is greater in counties to the southwest. Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding could happen, especially Monday evening. Breezy (10-20 mph wind gusts) conditions may become possible Monday evening. No widespread, damaging winds are expected since the core of Marco will pass to our southwest. Heavy rain will be possible at times Monday into Monday night.
Locations: Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home.
QUICK UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM LAURA… Tropical Storm Laura is now centered in the Windward Passage, between Haiti and Cuba. Doppler radar imagery from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows the center of circulation moving west. It appears, based on this observation, that the potential for the center of Laura to track north of Cuba or hug the northern coastline of Cuba is now off the table. Models have struggled today with the initialization of Laura. Basically that means that the global models are not picking up the exact center of Laura, thus if you start with the wrong center, odds are you end up with a model output that is potentially significantly wrong in terms of the future track and intensity. I imagine models will begin to get a better grasp gradually tonight into Monday. The overall general idea for Laura has not changed, however. We expect Laura to continue to move northwest over Cuba through tomorrow morning before emerging in the southeastern Gulf on Monday evening. Laura will likely continue to move northwest, perhaps coming ashore in Texas or Louisiana on Wednesday. While not explicitly mentioned in the National Hurricane Center public products, there is a chance for rapid intensification Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday before landfall. This means Laura could be a dangerous, major hurricane at landfall. We’ll be able to get more specific about this soon.
SET UP APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have a detailed, live video update a bit later this evening. Hope you’ll join us for that. Have a great Sunday evening!