QUITE HOT THIS AFTERNOON; NANA BRIEFLY BECOMES HURRICANE… Heat index values will again soar above 100 this afternoon in many spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The air temperature will peak in the mid-90s this afternoon but when you factor in the humidity, it will feel quite hot and sultry. Passing cumulus clouds are likely this afternoon but vast majority of us will be dry with very low (10-20%) rain chances today. Rain chances will slowly rise this weekend. Nana briefly became a hurricane last evening and Tropical Depression Omar is about to fizzle out in the middle of the Atlantic. We’re also watching two tropical waves in the open waters of the Atlantic that may develop into tropical storms over the next few days. Let’s look at all of your Thursday forecast details.
HARDLY ANY RAIN OR STORMS TODAY; HOT AND DRY… Hot temperatures will be our main focus locally on this Thursday. Temperatures will peak in the mid-90s this afternoon with plenty of sunshine in place across the region. Heat index values could easily surpass 100 degrees in many spots. While I cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm or two across the region, nearly all of us today will remain dry. Rain chances are at 20% or less in most spots today.
FEW MORE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY… Rain chances will progressively rise on Friday and Saturday as we transition to more of a typical early September pattern with more in the way of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours each day. Highs will be in the mid-90s on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be plenty of sunshine hours at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this weekend.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK… Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous Sunday into Monday of the upcoming week. The overall pattern will likely trend a bit wetter next week compared to this week with more P.M. pop-up showers and thunderstorms likely each day. No signs of an organized severe weather event are in sight at this point, however.
MIDWEEK COOL DOWN LOOKS LESS LIKELY… Unfortunately, model data has backed off considerably on bringing an early taste of fall to our region. Overnight lows may be in the upper-60s by Wednesday of the upcoming week with highs maybe just a touch cooler (mid- to upper-80s). While the data was pretty consistent for awhile, we should not be shocked by this abrupt change. It is simply difficult for fronts to get this far south so early on. I suspect we’ll have more in the way of REAL shots of cooler air by mid-October.
NANA OVER BELIZE & CENTRAL AMERICA… Nana briefly became a hurricane late last evening before moving onshore early this morning in southern Belize. What is left of Nana will continue to be a potential problem for parts of Central America over the next few days. Heavy rain, flash flooding, and mudslides will be concerns across parts of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, and Honduras. The remnant circulation of Nana may move into the eastern Pacific later tonight or on Friday, where re-development of the system may happen. If that were to occur, if Nana spins down entirely and loses its low-level center of circulation (which is likely to happen), it will then take the new name on the Pacific side (Julio). Interestingly, if Nana maintained its low-level circulation and did not completely fizzle out, the storm would actually keep its current name as it moves into the Eastern Pacific.
OMAR STARTS TO FIZZLE OUT… Omar is barely hanging on this morning. The system was a tropical storm yesterday before weakening to a tropical depression earlier this morning. Omar is expected to completely dissipate later today. No threat to land.
60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean in between the African continent and the Cabo Verde Islands now has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next 3-5 days. From NHC: “A tropical wave, located just off the coast of west Africa, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The wave is expected to merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands toward the end of the week. Gradual development of this system is then possible, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while it moves westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.”
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See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!