SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEKEND; TROPICAL CONCERNS NEXT WEEK… Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times this weekend, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours each day. We continue to monitor a developing tropical disturbance, currently located near The Bahamas, that is set to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. This disturbance has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical storm as it moves toward the northern Gulf Coast some time during the middle part of the upcoming week. It is too early to know if or when specific local impacts will happen in south Alabama or northwest Florida but that is a possibility at this point. In addition, we’re tracking a separate area of low pressure currently to our south in the Gulf that will move toward Texas and Mexico. We’re also watching two more tropical waves set to emerge from Africa and Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene. Let’s look at all of your Friday morning forecast details.
POP-UP STORMS THIS WEEKEND… We will have a classic late summer weather pattern in place this weekend across the region with a 60-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low-90s with morning lows in the lower-70s. Rain and storms will be at their peak each day (in terms of coverage and intensity) from 1PM to 7PM. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected this weekend, although some of the storms may be loud at times.
GULF TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK… It is too early to know if specific local impacts will happen because of this tropical disturbance, but odds are pretty high that increased rain chances are ahead in the middle part of the upcoming week as deep tropical moisture arrives from the southeast. From NHC: “A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida later today and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys during the next couple of days.”
SEPARATE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO… This morning, there continues to be an open trough of low pressure located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This area of low pressure is basically due south of our local coastline. NHC suggests there is a low (10-20%) chance that this disturbance develops as it slowly moves southwest toward the Texas and Mexico coast this weekend into early next week. Direct local impacts, other than potential rip currents at area beaches, are not expected because of this system.
TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE LIKELY TO AFFECT BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE… I am thankful Tropical Storm Paulette has remained out at sea as the storm remains a considerable forecasting challenge. Paulette currently has maximum winds of 50 mph. The latest forecast for Paulette from NHC calls for the system to strengthen into a hurricane on Sunday before moving very near Bermuda on Monday. After approach to Bermuda, Paulette will likely begin rapidly moving northeast and out to sea into the north Atlantic Ocean. Direct local impacts from Tropical Storm Paulette in Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected.
RENE LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE, BUT REMAIN OVER OPEN OCEAN… Tropical Storm Rene continues to move west-northwest across the east-central part of the Atlantic Ocean. Rene will likely become a hurricane on Saturday, but the entirety of the forecast track keeps the system completely out at sea in the days ahead. Rene is not a direct concern for Alabama or northwest Florida and direct local impacts are not expected.
TROPICAL WAVE LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM SOON… There is a robust tropical wave, located “behind” or east of Tropical Storm Rene, that has emerged from Africa and will likely develop into a classified tropical storm. NHC says there is a very high (90%) chance that this system becomes a tropical storm in the days ahead. From NHC: “A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.” It remains way too early to speculate where this system will end up, although most major global models agree this system will likely take a route farther to the south than Paulette and Rene, meaning impacts to the Leeward Islands may be possible in about a week or so.
ANOTHER WAVE TO EMERGE FROM AFRICA… The “African wave train,” as it is known, is set to continue with yet another tropical wave slated to move into the eastern Atlantic by Sunday or Monday. NHC indicates there is already a 40% chance that this system will become a tropical storm as it moves west over the warm waters of the main development region of the Atlantic in the days ahead.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a good weekend!