NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA… The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 19. TD19 will likely strengthen and move toward the northern Gulf Coast in the days ahead. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for parts of South Florida this evening ahead of TD19. Potential local impacts from this tropical depression will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida as we get into the middle part of the upcoming week. It should be noted that the official forecast from NHC calls for this system to be a tropical storm on approach to the northern Gulf Coast. Make sure you have our RedZone Weather app downloaded with alerts turned on and customized in the Alerts tab to be able to get all of the info and content we’ll be pushing out in the days ahead. NOW is the time to start planning for this storm, especially if you’re located in an evacuation zone. If evacuations are needed, I imagine those orders will start to be issued on Sunday or Monday. Keep in mind that significant changes in the intensity guidance will be possible over the next few days. More details are below.
The potential local impacts discussion below has not changed since Noon. New information is below in the paragraphs that follow, including the latest on the new Tropical Storm Watch in South Florida.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – TD19… Confidence is high that increased rain chances will happen Tuesday through Thursday as Tropical Depression 19 (or the tropical storm or hurricane it becomes) passes near or over our area. High waves and deadly rip currents will be concerns at all Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Confidence is much lower on other potential local impacts, but depending on the strength of TD19 as the system approaches our area, other hazards may be possible. This includes the potential for high winds (50-60 mph) at the immediate coast with wind gusts over hurricane force, isolated tornadoes across the region, coastal flooding, and flash flooding. We will know more about potential local impacts by Sunday into Monday as we get a better grip of just how strong this system will be.
NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH POSTED… TD19 will probably become a tropical storm soon. This is why a Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for parts of South Florida, from south of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef.
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH LIKELY LOCALLY… I would not be surprised if a Tropical Storm Watch or Hurricane Watch becomes needed for all or part of our local coastline in Alabama and northwest Florida Sunday into Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning or Hurricane Warning will follow on Monday or Tuesday. If your specific area goes under a Hurricane Warning or Storm Surge Warning, please heed all local evacuation orders that may be needed.
TD19 MAY BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL NEXT WEEK… Let me emphasize it is too early to know just how strong newly minted Tropical Depression 19 will be at the time the system makes landfall by midweek. Early model guidance suggests a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane being the most likely scenario. We’re looking at somewhat of a “double edged sword” situation. Fortunately, the system will be moving at a decent clip (8-12 mph) as it moves northwest across the Gulf. Unfortunately, that means the system WILL have 48-72 hours over the warm waters of the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That means the system will have enough time to become stronger. Another concern is that upper-level winds look favorable for at least some intensification before landfall. Keep in mind that we’re still early in this process and future intensity is arguably the most difficult aspect of tropical storm and hurricane forecasting.
NORTHERN GULF COAST LANDFALL IS LIKELY… Confidence is pretty high that this tropical disturbance will likely move ashore somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast midweek. I would suggest interests from Apalachicola, FL westward to Morgan City, LA should keep a close watch on this system in the days ahead.
THE TIME TO START HURRICANE PREP IS NOW… We are in the peak of hurricane season. This type of situation SHOULD be expected. There is nothing abnormal about a tropical disturbance growing to tropical storm or hurricane intensity this time of year, especially a system in the Gulf or southwestern Atlantic Ocean. I say that to say: It is important to have a hurricane preparation plan in place for the duration of hurricane season, but *especially* in the month of September, which is historically the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Know where you would go if you live in an evacuation zone closer to the coast. Do you have plenty of medicine, supplies, and food in case a hurricane threatens your area? All things we need to begin thinking about if we haven’t already.
PAULETTE & RENE IN THE ATLANTIC… Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene remain out at sea in the Atlantic Ocean. Paulette could be a significant issue for Bermuda in about 4 days, as the system is expected to become a hurricane this weekend. The official forecast from NHC calls for Paulette to ramp up to a category 2 hurricane with maximum winds near 110 mph when the storm is near Bermuda. Paulette will then rapidly move northeast and out to sea. Rene will likely remain out at sea before dissipating in about a week.
MORE TROPICAL WAVES SET TO EMERGE… Two more tropical waves have emerged into the eastern Atlantic Ocean, as of Friday evening. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 90% and 40% chance, respectively, of these two tropical waves becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. The “front” wave will likely move west and could be an issue for the Lesser Antilles in 5-6 days. The newly emerged wave with a 40% chance of development will likely move out to sea and not threaten land areas.
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this tropical weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have updates this evening in the RedZone Weather app. Due to the tropical threat setting up next week, we will produce a special Saturday morning edition of the RedZone Weather forecast video that will debut by 7:15AM. Until then, be sure to join me in the RedZone Weather app for shorter, more frequent updates. Have a nice evening!