TD19/SALLY LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE APPROACHING OUR AREA ON MONDAY… TD19/Sally is now explicitly forecast to be a hurricane when the storm approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Please understand this situation looks to be a long duration heavy rain event that could lead to potentially significant flash flooding and river/creek flooding, especially in coastal areas of Alabama, Mississippi, northwest Florida, and east Louisiana. The attached map highlights the total rain amounts expected over the next 5 days. Coastal parts of Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties could pick up in excess of 7-10 inches of rainfall, which could lead to a dangerous flash flooding situation.
LOCAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DUE TO TD19/SALLY… All hurricane hazards will be possible as the center of TD19/Sally moves near or over our area. Based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, the greatest threat from Sally will likely be a potentially significant threat of heavy rain, flash flooding, and potentially river and creek flooding even after the storm moves by. Rain amounts will vary across the region, with some spots inland likely getting less than 3 inches of rain in total while some areas closer to the coast may have upwards of 10 inches of total rainfall. High winds (near or perhaps just above hurricane force) will be possible in all of our coastal counties. Depending on the exact future track of TD19/Sally, tropical storm force winds may be possible across inland counties as well. Tornadoes will be a concern across the region from Monday into Tuesday, and perhaps even Wednesday morning. Storm surge and coastal flooding will become possible Monday into Tuesday, regardless of the exact future strength of the storm. In addition, dangerous rip currents and high waves are expected ahead of the storm on Sunday. More details are below concerning the timing of specific local impacts.
IMPACTS FROM TD19/SALLY – TIMING.. Impacts from TD19 (what will likely be Tropical Storm or Hurricane Sally) are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida, potentially starting as early as Monday morning and potentially extending until Thursday. The main timeframe for impacts looks to be from Noon Monday to Noon on Wednesday, with heavy rain and isolated tornadoes becoming possible first. High winds are likely near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The ongoing risk of flash flooding and isolated tornadoes will likely continue through Thursday morning. River and creek flooding may become a lingering issue long after the circulation of TD19/Sally fades away.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19 EMERGING INTO S.E. GULF NOW… At Noon, the center of Tropical Depression 19 is located about 40 miles south-southeast of Naples, Florida or about 55 miles southwest of Miami. This puts the center of circulation directly over the western part of the Everglades, basically emerging into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico now. Maximum winds are at 35 mph. The depression is moving west or west-northwest at about 9 mph. An Air Force Reserve “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm in several hours. We will get a better handle of the strength of the storm at that point. I expect TD19 to become a tropical storm either tonight or on Sunday.
NHC EXPLICITLY FORECASTS HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL… Unlike previous forecasts, the National Hurricane Center now explicitly calls for TD19/Sally to be a hurricane on approach to the northern Gulf Coast. Landfall is expected anywhere from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to Destin, Florida. That means that landfall *could* happen in our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, although the current forecast shows a more likely scenario of landfall a bit to our west across Mississippi or Louisiana. KEEP IN MIND, with this scenario, our area would be on the volatile, eastern flank of this landfalling hurricane. Storm surge, flooding, and high wind impacts at the immediate coast may be magnified because of this. I also still am not completely ruling out the chance of rapid intensification before landfall. While it is NOT likely that this will be a major hurricane at landfall, it also is not completely out of the realm of possibilities.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH JUST TO OUR EAST… A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Okaloosa-Walton County line eastward to the Ochlockonee River in the Florida Panhandle. This includes Walton, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin counties in the Florida Panhandle. Miramar Beach, Sandestin, Blue Mountain Beach, Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, Rosemary Beach, Panama City, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, and Apalachicola are involved in this Tropical Storm Watch. This has been posted as these areas may have some fringe wind effects from what could be a tropical storm or hurricane passing to the southwest of these areas Monday into Tuesday.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR HURRICANE WATCH LIKELY LATER… There is a high chance that a Tropical Storm Watch or Hurricane Watch will be posted for northwest Florida, coastal Alabama, coastal Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana today or tonight. Landfall of TD19 (likely as a tropical storm or hurricane) is forecast to happen some time early next week from Monday through Wednesday, depending on the exact future track of the system.
REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE SAFETY PLAN TODAY… I know it is the weekend and many folks want to rest and relax, however, I suggest everyone in our local area either a) make a hurricane plan or b) if you have a hurricane safety plan, review it and be ready to take action. It is important to have a hurricane preparation plan in place for the duration of hurricane season, but *especially* in the month of September, which is historically the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Know where you would go if you live in an evacuation zone closer to the coast. Do you have plenty of medicine, supplies, and food in case a hurricane threatens your area? All things we need to begin thinking about if we haven’t already. If you live in a designated evacuation zone, please heed the evacuation orders if you get one in the days ahead.
APP ALERTS… NOW is the time, BEFORE we get to this tropical weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT DETAILED UPDATE BY 4:30PM… I will have another update posted around 4:30PM bringing you the very latest information. Until then, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest. See you then!